Maharashtra is staring at a severe drought as the 2024 monsoon remains stalled at the Maharashtra-Goa border, with dam water reserves across the state crashing to a critical 25 per cent of capacity. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) sounded the alarm in an editorial published in its mouthpiece 'Saamana' on Monday, 15 June, warning that the convergence of a historic El Niño cycle and a failed monsoon onset is pushing the state toward a crisis not seen in decades.

Monsoon Stalls, Sowing Comes to a Halt

The monsoon's traditional arrival in Mumbai by 7 June was missed entirely this year. After advancing normally from Kerala to Karnataka in the first week of June, the monsoon's progress abruptly slowed after 6 June, leaving it marooned at the state's southern border. The editorial noted that even as the first half of the Mriga constellation draws to a close, there is no sign of rainfall across Maharashtra — a deeply inauspicious signal in the agricultural calendar.

With no early monsoon rains, sowing activities have ground to a complete halt across the state. The editorial pointed out that even standard pre-monsoon agricultural preparations are absent from rural areas. The government has advised farmers not to begin sowing based on isolated or sporadic showers, urging them to wait until the soil retains consistent moisture across two to four heavy rain spells.

El Niño: Potentially the Strongest in 150 Years

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had earlier warned of the activation of a hazardous El Niño weather pattern. According to the 'Saamana' editorial, experts now warn this could be the strongest El Niño effect witnessed in 150 years, driven by rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and the neutralisation of critical rainfall-triggering factors across the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian Ocean. The WMO's forecast of prolonged delays and deficient seasonal rainfall is, the editorial argued, materialising with 'pinpoint accuracy.'

Dam Levels Hit Danger Zone

Water levels across Maharashtra's 3,028 small and large dams have plummeted to dangerous lows. Most critically, the seven major reservoirs supplying water to Mumbai are left with a mere 12.48 per cent of their total capacity. In response, the Water Resources Department of the Government of Maharashtra has suspended water supply for agricultural irrigation, reserving remaining stocks strictly for drinking purposes.

The state is also coming off one of its hottest summers in 40 to 50 years, according to the editorial. The prolonged heatwave has scorched agricultural land, dried up wells, and emptied countless lakes — compounding the stress on an already fragile water supply chain.

Political Warning and Call to Action

The Thackeray camp used the editorial to issue a direct call to action, urging farmers, citizens, and the government to prepare immediately for the impending crisis. Critics argue that the ruling dispensation has been slow to declare drought conditions despite mounting evidence on the ground. The editorial stopped short of directly blaming the government but underscored that early, coordinated intervention is essential to prevent the situation from spiralling further.

With the monsoon's progress uncertain and dam reserves at critically low levels, Maharashtra's agricultural communities face a race against time — and the next few weeks of weather data will determine whether this season tips into a full-scale drought declaration.