Indian intelligence agencies are assessing that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) — following a significant internal reshuffle in Islamabad that reportedly elevated hardliners to key positions — is weighing a revival of the so-called 'Burhan Wani model' to reignite homegrown militancy in Jammu and Kashmir. According to intelligence inputs, the ISI's primary concern is rebuilding a recruitment pipeline that is entirely local in origin, reducing its dependence on Pakistani operatives.

Background: What Was the Burhan Wani Model?

Burhan Wani, a commander of Hizbul Mujahideen, emerged as a social media phenomenon whose images and online messaging reportedly drew a significant number of Kashmiri youth into militancy without extensive scouting or formal radicalisation sessions. His elimination by Indian security forces in 2016 triggered widespread unrest across the Valley. According to officials, the recruitment surge his persona generated — including coordinated protests and stone-pelting — was described as a 'nightmare' for security agencies at the time.

Post-Wani Strategy and Its Failures

In the aftermath of Wani's death, the ISI reportedly created proxy outfits — notably The Resistance Front (TRF) and the People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) — as fronts for Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed respectively. A key feature of this approach was rebranding: Arabic and religious names for terror groups were abandoned in favour of secular-sounding identities, and militants were referred to as 'freedom fighters' while Indian security forces were labelled 'occupational forces.'

On 7 October 2021, TRF released a statement claiming responsibility for the killing of two teachers at a government school in Srinagar, alleging the victims had coerced students into participating in Independence Day celebrations. However, according to an Intelligence Bureau (IB) official, this strategy has since run its course. 'Everyone realised that, be it The Resistance Front or the PAFF, they were Pakistani by origin and proxies of the Islamabad-funded Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed,' the official said.

Why the ISI Is Pivoting Now

Officials attribute the ISI's strategic rethink to several converging factors. The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 substantially altered ground conditions — Indian security forces dismantled large terror networks, and improved economic conditions, particularly a tourism boom that raised household incomes in J&K, reduced public sympathy for militant outfits. Additionally, India's stated doctrine of treating every act of cross-border terror as an act of war has, according to officials, forced the ISI to seek a fully homegrown module that provides it plausible deniability.

Notably, reviving the Hizbul Mujahideen — historically a 'thoroughbred homegrown outfit' — is said to be central to the new strategy. The ISI reportedly wants to 'drastically reduce' the presence of Pakistani nationals in active operations and instead cultivate a charismatic local figure capable of replicating Wani's influence on Kashmiri youth through social media.

Security Assessment and Implications

Officials caution that the ISI's homegrown recruitment model, if successfully executed, would present a qualitatively different challenge for Indian security agencies compared to infiltrations by foreign militants. A locally embedded network is harder to detect, prosecute, and counter narratively. The IB and other agencies are said to be monitoring social media platforms and local networks closely for early signals of such an effort. The new ISI leadership is expected to formalise its revised J&K strategy in the months ahead, making continued vigilance critical.