Mumbai, March 20 (NationPress) The Election Commission is anticipated to soon declare elections for nine seats in the Maharashtra Legislative Council. The Mahayuti, boasting a substantial surplus of 235 total votes, is on track to secure eight seats, which include five for the BJP, two for Shiv Sena, and one for NCP.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), currently comprising 46 MLAs—20 from Shiv Sena (UBT), 16 from Congress, and 10 from NCP (SP)—is positioned to elect a single candidate, provided there's no cross-voting or any defection.

To clinch victory in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, a candidate must gather 29 first-preference votes based on the assembly's current strength.

Political discussions in the state are rife with speculation about whether Uddhav Thackeray, the head of Shiv Sena (UBT) and former Chief Minister, will vie for an additional term in the Upper House.

The election is deemed necessary as nine members of the state council are set to retire on May 13.

Congress has laid claim to one seat, with Vijay Wadettiwar, the leader of the Congress Legislative Party, urging MVA partners, including Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), to concede the seat to Congress in light of its support for Sharad Pawar during the Rajya Sabha elections.

Traditionally, members of the Thackeray family have avoided direct electoral contests; however, this changed in 2019 when Aaditya Thackeray won the Worli Assembly seat, marking the family's first foray into public representation.

Post the 2019 Assembly elections, the MVA coalition emerged, and Uddhav Thackeray became Chief Minister without holding a seat in either legislative house.

According to constitutional requirements, Thackeray needed to join the state legislature within six months. Thus, in May 2020, he was elected unopposed to the Legislative Council. His term is set to expire on May 13, fueling intense speculation regarding his future steps, alongside the term expiration of other members.

After Eknath Shinde’s rebellion led to his resignation as Chief Minister, Uddhav Thackeray had initially indicated he would resign from his Legislative Council position. However, citing the four years left in his term, he ultimately chose to remain.

Observers note that Thackeray's activity in the Upper House has been limited since the government transition, with his appearances generally restricted to a few per session. Recently, he did engage in discussions regarding the condolence motion for Ajit Pawar during the ongoing Budget Session.

Sanjay Raut, a spokesperson for Shiv Sena (UBT) and MP, previously proposed a formula where Sharad Pawar would represent the alliance in the Rajya Sabha, while Uddhav Thackeray would contend for the Legislative Council. This arrangement led to Sharad Pawar’s unopposed election to the Rajya Sabha with Congress's backing. It is widely perceived that Congress's support for the MVA's council seat hinges on Thackeray himself being the candidate.

While Shiv Sena (UBT) advocates for Thackeray's candidacy, the Shinde-led faction may complicate matters by nominating an additional candidate. Despite the MVA boasting 17 surplus votes beyond the required quota, the ruling alliance may still endeavor to ensure that Thackeray's re-election is anything but a straightforward process.

According to analysts, the MVA's success in re-electing Thackeray rests solely on the unity of the 16 Congress MLAs and 10 NCP (SP) MLAs. If even a small fraction of these 46 MLAs is swayed to support a Mahayuti candidate, Thackeray’s seat—once deemed secure—could be thrust into a precarious second-preference counting scenario.

If the Shinde-led faction opts to nominate a third candidate (or if the Mahayuti fields a ninth), they would seek to capture the MVA’s 19 surplus votes. Given that the Council election operates on a secret ballot, the MVA’s 19 'extra' votes become a key target for political maneuvering.

In light of this context, the ultimate decision now lies with Uddhav Thackeray, whose choice will crucially influence the MVA's strategy in anticipation of the forthcoming Assembly elections.

(Sanjay Jog can be reached at sanjay.j@ians.in)