BJP landslide in Assam, UDF upset in Kerala: Shining India Survey
Synopsis
A little-known independent agency has predicted a BJP landslide in Assam, a UDF comeback in Kerala, and a near-status-quo in Tamil Nadu — with actor Vijay's TVK failing to dent the DMK. The survey's claims of accuracy in 2024 Lok Sabha predictions remain unverified, but its projections add to a crowded pre-election polling landscape.
Key Takeaways
Shining India Survey projects BJP winning 88 seats with 45.8% vote share in Assam , paving the way for a third term under Himanta Biswa Sarma .
In Kerala , the UDF is projected to win 83 seats with 43.6% vote share, unseating the LDF which is projected at 54 seats .
In Tamil Nadu , the DMK is projected to win 124 seats versus AIADMK 's 103 , with actor Vijay 's TVK estimated at 16.2% vote share.
The survey was conducted by psephologist Hrithik Saini of Shining India News ; its 2024 Lok Sabha accuracy claims are unverified.
All projections carry a margin of error ; the survey covers Assam , West Bengal , Tamil Nadu , Kerala , and Puducherry .
An independent polling agency, Shining India Survey, has projected a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and a potential ouster of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, ahead of assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory. The survey, released on 29 April from New Delhi, covers Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
Assam: A Third Consecutive Term for BJP
According to the Shining India Survey, the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is projected to win 88 seats with a vote share of 45.8%, setting the stage for a third consecutive term in the northeastern state. The Indian National Congress (INC) is projected to secure 31 seats with a 37.5% vote share. Regional players, including the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Independents, are expected to collectively win between 4 and 7 seats, with a combined vote share of 8–10%. The projections carry a margin of error.
Kerala: UDF Set to Unseat LDF
In Kerala, the survey predicts an upset, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) projected to return to power by winning 83 constituencies. The incumbent LDF is expected to secure 54 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may manage just 3 seats. A close contest is anticipated in approximately 21 seats. In terms of vote share, the UDF leads at 43.6%, ahead of the LDF at 38.2% and the NDA at 13.5% — a figure that, according to the survey, may not translate into meaningful seat gains for the alliance.
Tamil Nadu: Status Quo Despite TVK Entry
In Tamil Nadu, the survey suggests a broadly status quo outcome despite the electoral debut of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is projected to win 124 seats with a 38.6% vote share, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) may secure 103 seats at 37.3%. The TVK, in its first electoral outing, is estimated at 16.2% vote share and could influence outcomes in around 7 constituencies, though its seat tally is not projected to be substantial.
About Shining India Survey
The survey was conducted by journalist and psephologist Hrithik Saini, who is also the Editor-in-Chief of Shining India News. Though not widely known, the agency claims to have accurately gauged public sentiment in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, projecting 251 seats for the BJP and 98 seats for the Congress with a margin of error of 8–15 seats — figures it asserts were close to the final outcome, a period when several established pollsters reportedly fell short. These claims have not been independently verified.
The survey is one of several being released ahead of the upcoming state elections, and its projections should be read in the context of the stated margin of error and the agency's limited public track record.
Point of View
The LDF-UDF pendulum has swung with near-clockwork regularity since 1982, making a UDF return structurally plausible regardless of polling. In Tamil Nadu, the TVK's 16.2% projection, if accurate, would mark a remarkable debut but one that splits the anti-DMK vote rather than consolidating it — potentially entrenching DMK dominance further. The real story in these surveys may be less about who wins and more about whether new entrants like TVK permanently reshape the opposition landscape.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Shining India Survey predict for Assam?
The survey projects the BJP winning 88 seats with a 45.8% vote share in Assam, giving Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma a third consecutive term. The Congress is projected to secure 31 seats with 37.5% vote share.
What does the survey predict for Kerala?
The survey projects the UDF returning to power in Kerala with 83 seats and a 43.6% vote share, while the incumbent LDF is projected to win 54 seats at 38.2%. The NDA is estimated at just 3 seats despite a 13.5% vote share.
How does the survey project Tamil Nadu?
The DMK is projected to win 124 seats and the AIADMK 103 seats, suggesting a largely status quo outcome. Actor Vijay's TVK is estimated at 16.2% vote share in its electoral debut, potentially influencing around 7 constituencies.
Who conducted the Shining India Survey?
The survey was conducted by journalist and psephologist Hrithik Saini, Editor-in-Chief of Shining India News. The agency claims accuracy in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, though these claims have not been independently verified.
How reliable is the Shining India Survey?
Shining India Survey is described as not widely known, and its claims of accuracy in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are self-reported. All projections carry a stated margin of error and should be read with that context in mind.
