The proposed India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could double bilateral annual trade well ahead of schedule — in two to two-and-a-half years rather than the targeted five — according to BRICS Chamber of Commerce and Industry Chairman Harvansh Chawla, who made the assessment on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, in New Delhi. India's current annual trade with New Zealand stands at approximately $2.8 billion, and the official target is to double that figure over the next five years.

Chawla's Key Projections

'As I mentioned, I believe our target of doubling trade within five years could be achieved in just two to two-and-a-half years,' Chawla said. He also projected that the two nations would become 'very important trading partners for each other' in the years ahead, adding that New Zealand's significance for India — and India's for New Zealand — would grow substantially once the agreement takes effect.

He cautioned, however, that the FTA's visible impact on trade flows may take six months to a year to materialise after implementation, even if the longer-term trajectory is sharply upward.

Employment and Business Growth Outlook

Beyond headline trade numbers, Chawla argued that the agreement carries meaningful employment implications. 'As our trade doubles, employment will also increase. New factories will be set up and businesses will expand. For instance, a company with a turnover of ₹100 crore today could see it rise to ₹125 crore. This will have a positive impact on everyone,' he said.

This comes amid a broader push by India to lock in trade agreements with developed economies, following the landmark FTAs with the UAE and Australia in recent years. A deal with New Zealand would extend India's free-trade footprint into the South Pacific.

Call for Stronger Government Support to Exporters

Chawla stressed that the gains from the FTA would not automatically reach Indian traders without targeted policy intervention. He specifically called for dedicated export financing schemes with lower interest rates, noting that liquidity remains the single biggest constraint for Indian exporters. 'Indian traders currently need cash the most. The government should introduce schemes specifically to support exports. Schemes already exist, but they need to be expanded,' he said.

He added: 'Interest rates on export financing must be reduced. Traders may receive orders, but they need funds to execute them, which largely come from banks. Banks should introduce more flexible schemes for exporters with lower interest rates.' The remarks highlight a persistent structural gap between India's trade policy ambitions and on-the-ground financing access for small and mid-sized exporters.

Where the FTA Stands

Notably, the India-New Zealand FTA is still in negotiation and has not yet been formally concluded or signed. Chawla's projections are forward-looking assessments of the deal's potential, contingent on successful implementation. The two countries have engaged in multiple rounds of talks, and momentum has reportedly picked up following high-level diplomatic engagements. All timelines cited are estimates, not official government commitments.

With India's trade diplomacy intensifying across multiple geographies, the outcome of FTA negotiations with New Zealand will be closely watched by exporters in sectors such as dairy, kiwi fruit and processed foods — areas where bilateral complementarities are significant.