Sensex, Nifty log third straight weekly loss on rate, geopolitical fears
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
Indian equity benchmarks posted losses for the third consecutive week as of 29 August, weighed by concerns over global interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and fresh volatility linked to the introduction of the Closing Auction Session (CAS) for futures and options stocks. Despite a partial recovery on Friday, the broader trend remained under pressure.
Weekly and Friday Close
The Nifty50 declined 0.31 per cent over the week, closing at 24,175 after gaining 0.35 per cent on the final trading day. The BSE Sensex ended Friday up 330 points, or 0.43 per cent, at 77,264, though it still shed 0.36 per cent across the week. The Friday rebound was driven largely by strong buying in IT stocks, supported by upbeat global technology cues.
Jackson Hole and the Rate Anxiety
Remarks by US Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole symposium kept investors cautious about the future trajectory of interest rates, with markets increasingly pricing in a less accommodative policy environment. Rising uncertainty around US inflation and bond yields could continue to influence foreign institutional investor flows into emerging markets such as India, analysts noted.
Sectoral Performance: IT Leads, Banking Lags
Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty IT index was the standout performer, gaining around 2.45 per cent, buoyed by renewed global technology optimism and encouraging results from Nvidia. Pharma and select metal stocks also attracted buying interest. In contrast, weakness in select banking and consumer stocks continued to weigh on the broader benchmarks.
Crude Relief and Geopolitical Risk
Brent crude declined by over 4 per cent during the week to around $88 per barrel, as markets reacted to expectations of improved shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower crude prices provided some relief to energy-sensitive sectors. However, analysts cautioned that geopolitical risks remain elevated, and any renewed disruption to energy supplies could quickly reverse the recent decline.
Key Levels and What to Watch
For the Nifty50, the 24,000–23,800 zone is the immediate support area, while 24,300–24,400 marks the key resistance band. For Bank Nifty, support is placed around 56,900–56,500, with the 57,800–58,000 zone as the immediate resistance. Investors will closely track domestic GDP data and global economic releases in the coming sessions. The US non-farm payrolls report for August is scheduled for release on 4 September, and is expected to be a key determinant of market direction.