Global oil supermajors slashed their combined low-carbon spending to approximately $8.3 billion in 2025 — the lowest level since 2019 — while simultaneously ramping up investments in conventional oil and gas, according to a report by Equirus Securities. The shift marks the first time low-carbon outlays have fallen while hydrocarbon investments rose, underscoring a structural reassessment of energy strategy driven by geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns.

Scale of the Retreat

The combined low-carbon expenditure of seven global oil supermajors dropped sharply from around $24 billion in 2024 to $8.3 billion in 2025, according to the Equirus Securities report. That represents a decline of nearly two-thirds in a single year. Simultaneously, upstream oil and gas project spending has increased — a reversal that would have been considered unlikely just three years ago, when net-zero pledges dominated corporate energy strategy.

Company-Level Moves

Norwegian multinational energy company Equinor has revised its oil and gas production outlook upward, withdrawn its renewable-capacity target, and approved a NOK 40 billion investment to expand output from Norway's Troll gas field, which supplies nearly 30 per cent of Europe's gas demand. London-based energy company BP has accelerated its pivot toward conventional energy, increasing its focus on upstream growth and targeting production of more than one million barrels of oil equivalent per day from its US portfolio by 2030. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), meanwhile, plans to raise crude oil production beyond 5 million barrels per day and has announced cumulative investment commitments exceeding $200 billion by 2030.

The 'Energy Addition' Thesis

The Equirus Securities report frames the broader shift as a move from 'energy substitution' to 'energy addition' — a distinction with significant policy implications. Rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence, data centres, industrialisation, and emerging economies is driving total energy consumption higher, rather than simply reshaping its composition. As the report noted, 'LNG, nuclear power, power grids and conventional fuels are increasingly being added alongside renewable energy sources to meet rising demand rather than replacing hydrocarbons altogether.' This comes amid a period when renewable deployment continues to expand globally, but evidently not fast enough to offset surging baseline demand.

What This Means for the Energy Transition

The Equirus Securities report concludes that hydrocarbons are likely to remain a significant part of the global energy mix for longer than previously anticipated. Notably, the retreat from low-carbon spending does not signal a halt to renewables — rather, it reflects a recalibration of priorities under energy security pressure from geopolitical conflicts. This is the first measurable instance of the supermajors collectively reversing course on green investment since the post-pandemic net-zero surge of 2021–2024. The implications for global climate targets, particularly the COP commitments tied to fossil-fuel phase-down timelines, are likely to draw scrutiny from policymakers and climate advocates.