Pakistan is confronting more than a temporary trade disruption with Afghanistan — it is grappling with a structural realignment of regional commerce that could prove difficult to reverse, according to a report by The Friday Times.

The analysis warns that Afghan traders who have already found alternative routes may not return even after border crossings reopen. The core problem, the report argues, is not distance but predictability.

Geography's Diminishing Advantage

Pakistan remains geographically closest to landlocked Afghanistan, with Karachi and Port Qasim offering the shortest sea access of any transit country. Yet repeated border closures at Torkham and Chaman have steadily eroded that natural advantage for importers who require certainty on cost, timing, and delivery.

The October 2025 closure illustrated the human and commercial toll vividly. Hundreds of trucks were stranded: approximately 255 export vehicles were stuck inside the Torkham terminal alone, while another 200 were held up on the Jamrud-Landi Kotal road. Customs clearance at Chaman was simultaneously suspended. For perishable goods such as fruits and vegetables, days of waiting can wipe out the entire value of a shipment, while exporters absorb delayed payments and mounting fuel and parking charges.

Afghan Businesses Build Alternatives

Rather than wait, Afghan businesses have methodically constructed alternative supply chains. Iran's Chabahar port has emerged as a key sea gateway, while road and rail corridors through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan now link Afghanistan to Central Asia and beyond. The diversification appears to have worked — and stuck.

This comes amid a broader regional contest over influence and connectivity in Central and South Asia, where India's investment in Chabahar and Russia-backed rail links through Central Asia have provided Afghanistan with options that simply did not exist a decade ago.

Pakistan's Trade Numbers Tell the Story

The scale of the shift is visible in two sets of data cited in the report. Transit cargo moving through Pakistan — goods merely passing through its ports and roads en route to Afghanistan — fell to 11,592 containers worth approximately $367 million in FY2025-26, a dramatic decline from nearly 89,000 containers worth around $5 billion before 2021.

Pakistan's direct exports to Afghanistan collapsed to $243.7 million in FY2025-26, down from $783.9 million in FY2024-25 — a fall of almost 69 per cent in a single year. Notably, this decline follows a period of partial recovery when exports had climbed back to $1.34 billion in 2024-25, making the reversal all the sharper.

What Pakistan Actually Loses

The report cautions against reading transit container values as a direct income loss to Pakistan, clarifying that the country earns primarily from port handling, transport, warehousing, and logistics services rather than from the goods themselves. Nevertheless, a collapse in transit volumes translates into significant revenue loss for Pakistan's port operators, trucking industry, and customs infrastructure.

As alternative corridors mature and Afghan traders embed new supplier relationships, Pakistan faces the prospect that even a full border reopening may not restore pre-2021 trade flows — a structural consequence that goes well beyond any single border incident.