Nearly 16 million people in Afghanistan are currently experiencing acute food insecurity, including 3.4 million facing emergency levels of hunger, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned on 21 October 2026. The agency cautioned that conditions are likely to deteriorate sharply as winter approaches, compounding an already severe humanitarian emergency.

On the Ground: What OCHA Found

UN OCHA spokesperson Olga Cherevko issued the warning following a field visit to southern and northeastern Afghanistan. She said millions of families remain unable to purchase adequate food owing to widespread unemployment, depressed incomes, and severely limited access to essential services.

Cherevko attributed the depth of the crisis to decades of cumulative shocks — prolonged conflict, economic collapse, recurring drought, and repeated displacement — which have eroded communities' capacity to absorb further setbacks. She stressed that while humanitarian assistance is saving lives, it cannot permanently substitute for functioning public services, stable employment, and sustainable livelihoods.

Projected Scale of the Winter Crisis

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have projected that approximately 19.2 million people — or 38 per cent of Afghanistan's total population — will face high levels of acute food insecurity during the November–April lean season. That figure is up from 17.4 million projected for the same period a year earlier, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.

Of those, around 5 million are expected to reach emergency levels of hunger (IPC Phase 4) — double the number projected for the April–September 2026 period. The worst conditions are anticipated in Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e-Pol, and rural Ghazni.

Malnutrition Set to Surge in 2027

Malnutrition cases are expected to rise by nearly 10 per cent compared to 2026, reaching 4 million people — a quarter of them classified as severe and life-threatening. Prevention and treatment services continue to lag demand, leaving women and children most exposed to the worst outcomes, the agencies noted.

Notably, despite favourable rainfall that boosted crop production in 2026, persistent unemployment means that families who do not grow their own food still cannot afford a nutritious diet — underscoring that the crisis is as much economic as it is agricultural.

Drivers Behind the Crisis

The humanitarian situation is being driven by multiple compounding shocks. The forced return of more than 1.2 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan this year has strained already stretched resources. Border closures and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up the prices of basic goods. Sharp funding shortfalls for humanitarian aid programmes have further curtailed the international response.

Cherevko called on the international community to act immediately, urging greater investment in agriculture, rural livelihoods, local markets, employment generation, water systems, health services, and expanded economic opportunities for women. She warned that humanitarian assistance must reach vulnerable families before they exhaust their remaining resources.

What Needs to Happen Next

With the lean season beginning in November, the window for pre-positioning aid is narrowing. The UN agencies have called for accelerated funding commitments from donor governments and sustained logistical access to the most affected provinces. Without a significant scale-up, analysts warn that Afghanistan's food emergency risks becoming one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises of the coming year.