Tel Aviv, April 2 (NationPress) The collaborative five-point peace initiative proposed by China and Pakistan aimed at resolving the ongoing unrest in West Asia, which involves the United States, Israel, and Iran, is likely to face challenges. Such large-scale conflicts seldom conclude through mere diplomatic efforts, according to a report released on Thursday.

In an article for 'Times of Israel', renowned political advisor, author, and geopolitical analyst Sergio Restelli asserted that a successful agreement must start with acknowledging the essential interests of all parties involved, rather than merely calling for a ceasefire.

Restelli emphasized, "For the US and its allies, the foremost concern lies not in abstract notions of stability but in the tangible capabilities of the Iranian state. Issues like nuclear potential, missile range, and the structure of proxy networks are not incidental; they are central to the conflict. Any agreement that neglects these matters will merely postpone future escalations."

He further explained that for Tehran, the situation is equally dire. This is not simply a policy negotiation but a matter of survival. The Iranian regime will reject any terms that resemble disarmament under duress or that leave it vulnerable to future military actions. Additionally, it will not relinquish its regional power without credible and enforceable guarantees. An agreement that expects Iran to trust its adversaries without altering the strategic landscape will likely collapse immediately after being signed.

According to Restelli, mediation efforts that lack mechanisms for enforcement are merely symbolic. Any potential agreement would necessitate parties capable of ensuring compliance and enforcing penalties for violations. Rather than relying on a single mediator, a coordinated approach involving influential powers over various stakeholders may be required.

"There is a harsh reality that policymakers often shy away from. True peace is unlikely to emerge during moments of moral clarity but rather at times of profound exhaustion. Historical patterns in modern conflicts reveal that agreements are reached not when one side prevails but when all parties are fatigued. Economic pressures, supply chain disruptions, and domestic challenges heighten the urgency, prompting leaders to redefine compromise as a strategy," Restelli elaborated.

"Therefore, the objective should not be to draft idealistic terms but to prepare pragmatic ones ahead of that pivotal moment. A feasible peace will not eradicate the rivalry between Iran and its opponents; it will manage it. It will not eliminate distrust but rather institutionalize it. Such an agreement will not rest on expressions of goodwill but on frameworks that acknowledge its absence," he concluded.

Restelli noted, “Current proposals are doomed to fail because they seek tranquility without addressing the underlying conflict. Future agreements will only succeed if they take the opposite approach.”