Bangladesh's decade-long engagement with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has delivered significant but uneven results, with delays, rising costs, and selective project revisions hampering infrastructure development, according to a report published in international magazine The Diplomat. The findings arrive as Dhaka navigates a delicate balance between Chinese investment and regional geopolitical pressures.

The Funding Gap

Under the BRI framework, Bangladesh was projected to receive approximately $40 billion in Chinese investment — $26 billion for independent projects and $14 billion for joint venture projects. According to The Diplomat report, the majority of this funding is yet to materialise, despite high-profile pledges made in 2016. Only a fraction of the committed capital has been delivered so far, the report noted.

The slow pace of project implementation, compounded by escalating project costs, has undermined Bangladesh's plans for rapid infrastructure development. The report cited bureaucratic bottlenecks, corruption risks, and debt sustainability concerns as key factors affecting Dhaka's decision-making on BRI-linked projects.

Strategic Calculations Behind the Investment

Commentators cited in the report characterise BRI projects in Bangladesh as part of a broader Chinese strategy to expand geopolitical and geostrategic influence in the Bay of Bengal. Analysts argue Beijing is seeking to resolve the so-called 'Malacca Dilemma' — its dependence on the Strait of Malacca for maritime trade — build a two-ocean blue-water navy, and counter rival powers in the region.

Critics argue, in particular, that China is seeking to leverage Bangladesh's infrastructure, especially its seaports, to advance Beijing's strategic interests. This narrative has intensified scrutiny of Chinese-funded port and connectivity projects across South Asia.

Why Bangladesh Is Not a Strategic Game-Changer for China

The report, however, cautions against overstating Bangladesh's geostrategic value to China. It noted that if the Strait of Malacca were closed, China could redirect goods via Pakistani and Myanmar seaports — making Bangladesh a far less viable alternative. Any Chinese attempt to transport goods via Bangladeshi seaports would require crossing Indian or Myanmar territory.

Given the current state of Sino-Indian relations and the ongoing armed conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine and Chin States — which border Bangladesh — the report concluded this route is