The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) cautioned on Thursday, 1 October 2026, that a recent fall in reported Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) may reflect breakdowns in disease surveillance rather than genuine progress, even as the outbreak has killed nearly 4,000 people. The warning underlines how fragile the response remains across one of Africa's most complex emergencies.

Scale of the Outbreak

As of 29 September, the DRC's health authorities recorded 8,224 confirmed cases and 3,982 deaths, yielding a staggering case fatality rate of 48.4 per cent. Since its detection in mid-May, the outbreak has expanded from three health zones to 63 health zones spanning seven provinces, with 45 zones still registering active transmission.

Why the Drop in Cases Is Not a Victory Signal

Speaking at an online press briefing, Africa CDC official Wessam Mankoula cautioned against reading the most recent weekly decline as a sign of control. 'Falling in this curve doesn't mean that the outbreak is totally under control,' Mankoula said. The agency noted that insecurity and community resistance in multiple areas have disrupted surveillance and response operations, raising the possibility that many infections are going undetected. The epidemic curve has largely plateaued over the past four to five weeks, but officials say that plateau itself does not indicate containment.

Contact Tracing Gaps Remain Severe

Contact tracing — a cornerstone of Ebola containment — is running well below required benchmarks. Mankoula said that an average of only about 14 contacts are being identified per confirmed case, against an expected level of around 60. Only roughly 23 per cent of estimated contacts are being followed up, and nearly 80 per cent of new cases are emerging outside known contact lists. 'This is also one of the reasons... we cannot confidently say the outbreak is under control at this stage,' Mankoula said.

Violence and Healthcare Worker Deaths Compound the Crisis

The response is being further destabilised by security incidents. In Butembo, North Kivu Province, a local ruling-party official was beaten to death following a radio appearance on Sunday, with his party linking the attack to his public support for Ebola prevention efforts. In neighbouring Beni territory, an armed attack on a checkpoint also used by Ebola response teams left at least one person dead and several others injured on Saturday, according to local reports. Meanwhile, in Kisangani, capital of Tshopo Province, a doctor died of Ebola on 24 September. Provincial Health Minister Simon Bokongo said on Tuesday that the hospital where the doctor worked had been temporarily closed for 21 days after more than 10 staff members tested positive, with over 123 contacts identified.

Diverging Trends Across Provinces

The outbreak is not moving uniformly. Over the latest three-week period, reported cases in Ituri Province — the longtime epicentre — declined by about 32 per cent compared with the preceding three weeks. However, North Kivu Province continued to record an increase, illustrating how suppression in one area can be offset by resurgence in another. Mankoula stressed that building community trust is essential: 'This outbreak cannot be controlled without building community trust,' the official said, calling for secure access to affected communities and stronger local engagement.

With contact tracing severely under-capacity, violence threatening response personnel, and surveillance gaps obscuring the true case count, the path to containing this outbreak remains uncertain at best.