OPEC+ raises oil output by 188,000 bpd from September, restoring 2023 cuts
Synopsis
OPEC+ has greenlit another output increase — but between a choked Strait of Hormuz, Russia pumping well below its own target, and the UAE's recent exit from the group, the 188,000 bpd quota hike may look bigger on paper than it proves in practice. Add Trump's contradictory Iran signals, and global oil markets face as much uncertainty as ever.
Key Takeaways
OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd production quota increase effective September 2025 , continuing the rollback of 2023 supply cuts.
The decision was taken by seven members: Saudi Arabia , Russia , Iraq , Kuwait , Kazakhstan , Algeria , and Oman .
Russia's actual output is around 9 million bpd — roughly 0.8 million bpd below its OPEC+ target — due to Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure.
The Strait of Hormuz , through which 20% of global oil and gas exports pass, remains disrupted by Middle East conflict.
The UAE exited OPEC+ in May , raising questions about the group's long-term cohesion.
Rystad Energy expects OPEC+ to hold output steady in Q4 before beginning 2027 quota talks.
OPEC+ on Sunday, 2 August approved a fresh increase in its collective crude production quota by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) effective September, continuing the cartel's phased rollback of the sweeping supply cuts it introduced in 2023. The decision was unanimous among the group's seven core producers.
Who Decided and What Was Agreed
The production hike was endorsed by seven key OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The move continues a broader strategy the alliance has pursued since 2025, gradually restoring the nearly 6 million bpd in combined output that was cut across three rounds between late 2022 and 2023.
Why Higher Quotas May Not Mean More Oil on Markets
Analysts caution that an increase in official production quotas does not automatically translate into more crude reaching global buyers. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas exports transit — remains disrupted by ongoing Middle East conflict, creating a structural bottleneck between producers and consumers.
Russia's situation adds further complexity. Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory have constrained output. Moscow's current production stands at around 9 million bpd, well below its OPEC+ target of approximately 9.8 million bpd.
UAE Exit Adds Uncertainty to OPEC+ Cohesion
The UAE's departure from OPEC+ in May has introduced a fresh layer of instability within the group. The exit followed years of frustration over coordinated production limits and has prompted broader questions about how long remaining members will continue to accept collective output discipline. The UAE's absence reduces the group's collective bargaining weight and its ability to enforce compliance.
What Analysts Expect Next
Rystad Energy projects that OPEC+ will hold production levels steady through the fourth quarter before turning to discussions on 2027 quotas. The pause, analysts say, would allow producers to gauge the real-world impact of restored exports, monitor global demand signals, and track oil price movements before committing to further increases.
Trump, Iran, and the Geopolitical Overhang
Adding to market uncertainty, US President Donald Trump stated on his Truth Social platform that he had cancelled planned US strikes against Iran, provided a deal is reached 'rapidly.' Trump said he had been asked by Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off on military action, claiming the parameters of an agreement had been broadly accepted.
However, Iran's Mehr news agency directly contradicted Trump's account, stating that Tehran had made no such request and calling his claims 'nothing but a new lie.' The contradictory signals come amid reports that the US and Israel may be considering intensified strikes against Iran — a scenario that would further threaten oil supply routes through the Gulf.
With geopolitical risk elevated, market watchers will closely track whether the September quota increase materially shifts global supply balances or remains largely symbolic on paper.
Point of View
And the Strait of Hormuz remains a structural chokepoint regardless of what Riyadh decides. The UAE's exit is perhaps the more consequential signal — it suggests the era of tight cartel discipline may be fraying faster than the group's public posture admits. Markets should price the September increase with considerable scepticism until actual flow data confirms otherwise.
NationPress
2 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did OPEC+ decide on 2 August 2025?
OPEC+ approved an increase in its collective crude production quota by 188,000 barrels per day, effective September 2025. The decision was made by seven core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, and continues the phased unwinding of cuts introduced between late 2022 and 2023.
Will the OPEC+ output hike actually increase global oil supply?
Not necessarily, according to analysts. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20 per cent of global oil and gas exports transit — remains disrupted by Middle East conflict, limiting how much additional crude can reach buyers. Russia is also producing well below its OPEC+ target due to Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Why did the UAE leave OPEC+?
The UAE exited OPEC+ in May 2025 after years of frustration over coordinated production limits. Its departure has raised questions about the group's long-term cohesion and the willingness of remaining members to accept collective output discipline.
What is Rystad Energy's outlook for OPEC+ production?
Rystad Energy expects OPEC+ to keep production levels steady through the fourth quarter of 2025 before beginning discussions on 2027 quotas. The pause is intended to allow producers to assess the real-world impact of restored exports and monitor global demand and price trends.
How does the Trump-Iran situation affect oil markets?
US President Donald Trump claimed he cancelled planned strikes against Iran pending a rapid deal, but Iran's Mehr news agency denied Tehran made any such request. The contradictory signals, combined with reports of potential US-Israel military action against Iran, keep geopolitical risk elevated and add uncertainty to Gulf oil supply routes.
