Pakistan security forces on Sunday, 29 June carried out fresh ground operations along the Afghanistan border, accompanied by airstrikes deeper inside Afghan territory, according to reports. Islamabad framed the assault as a counterterrorism response, but Kabul's Taliban government said the strikes killed and wounded dozens of civilians, including women and children.

Escalating Military Campaign Since October 2025

Pakistan has been intensifying military operations against Afghanistan since October 2025, striking cities including Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, and Paktika. Islamabad characterises these as counterterrorism operations targeting Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgents allegedly sheltered on Afghan soil.

Kabul has consistently denounced the strikes as violations of sovereignty, reporting civilian casualties and accusing Pakistan of using Afghanistan as a scapegoat for its own internal failures. Border clashes across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Bajaur, Kurram, and Balochistan have left dozens dead, while closures of key crossings — including Torkham and Chaman — disrupted trade and humanitarian flows for approximately eight months.

A brief ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey in mid-October collapsed within days. By February 2026, Pakistan reportedly declared 'open war' against its neighbour. Rather than decisively weakening the Taliban, the campaign has deepened regional hostility and underscored Islamabad's reliance on external aggression, critics argue, to mask a worsening domestic crisis.

Political and Constitutional Crisis at Home

Domestically, Pakistan's 27th Constitutional Amendment, 2025, has entrenched military supremacy by strengthening the army chief's role and sidelining civilian institutions. The incarceration of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the systematic marginalisation of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have deepened a legitimacy crisis that opposition alliances continue to challenge.

Demands for constitutional supremacy from opposition groups have been met with mass arrests and a shrinking democratic space, according to reports. Governance in border regions is increasingly managed through military administration rather than civilian institutions, leaving Pakistan, analysts argue, structurally unable to address poverty, education, or healthcare crises.

Economic Fragility and IMF Stalemate

Pakistan's economic situation is dire. Poverty reportedly stands at 42 per cent, and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout are currently stalled. Islamabad is simultaneously seeking financial assistance from both China and the United States, reflecting the depth of the fiscal crisis.

Resources continue to be diverted to defence spending, perpetuating a cycle of economic fragility. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — a flagship economic lifeline — faces disruption from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which continues insurgent attacks targeting Chinese-funded projects in Balochistan.

Secessionist Pressures and Internal Fragmentation

Beyond Balochistan, demands for autonomy or independence reportedly simmer in Sindh and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK), fuelled by what critics describe as exploitation and neglect. Secessionist movements, many allegedly linked to militant elements, continue to challenge the state's territorial cohesion.

Pakistan's military establishment, headquartered in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, effectively defines foreign policy, security posture, and economic priorities. Civilian institutions, lacking both legitimacy and capacity, are left unable to deliver governance outcomes.

The Strategic Calculus Behind the Afghan Offensive

Analysts argue that blaming Kabul for harbouring militants serves as a calculated bid to redirect public anger away from economic collapse and political repression. For the Pakistan Army, external conflict provides justification for its domestic dominance, presenting the institution as the guardian of national sovereignty.

Notably, Pakistan played a central role in nurturing the Taliban and its predecessor, the Mujahideen militia — originally mobilised against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. The reversal, with Kabul now cast as the adversary, reflects a strategic contradiction that critics say has created a formidable and uncontrollable foe.

Pakistan's war against Afghanistan, observers contend, is less about defeating the Taliban than about masking internal failures. Afghanistan, though militarily weaker, has demonstrated resilience across decades of conflict. For Islamabad, the deepest threat, analysts warn, remains internal — not external.