Pakistan has placed orders for around 2,06,000 bales of cotton from the United States and is ramping up purchases from Brazil as domestic production continues to fall, according to a new report, underscoring a deepening structural dependence on imports ahead of the local harvest season.

From Self-Sufficiency to Import Dependence

The report, citing analysis of Pakistan's cotton and textile sector, describes the industry's trajectory as a shift 'from decline to dependence.' Domestic output is currently estimated at roughly 5 million bales — well below the levels at which Pakistan was once self-sufficient in cotton. The country's cultivation area has been shrinking steadily, compounded by poor seed quality, climate stress, pest pressure, and farmers increasingly switching to competing crops such as sugarcane, maize, and rice.

Scale of US Cotton Purchase Signals Structural Shift

The timing and volume of the US cotton order has drawn particular attention. According to the report, the 2,06,000 bales ordered from the United States represent nearly the entire quantity sold in that market within a single week — and crucially, the purchase was made before Pakistan's own harvest had begun. 'That is not a normal seasonal adjustment; it is evidence that the country's cotton supply chain is now structurally tied to foreign markets,' the report stated.

Textile Industry Under Pressure

Pakistan's textile manufacturers, who historically relied on domestic cotton for the bulk of their raw material needs, have been forced to substitute imported lint. Industry producers have pressed the government for tax relief, lower energy tariffs, and reduced levies, arguing that the sector cannot simultaneously absorb the cost of import dependence and weak domestic output. The report warned that growing reliance on cotton imports risks widening Pakistan's current account deficit and eroding the competitiveness of its export-oriented textile industry.

A Cycle Difficult to Break

The report identified a self-reinforcing cycle at the heart of the crisis: as cotton cultivation area contracts, mills lose domestic supply, imports rise, and the foreign exchange burden grows. It attributed the collapse in domestic production to poor seed regulation, uneven institutional support, weak agricultural extension services, and inconsistent pricing signals for farmers. 'As the cotton area contracts, mills lose domestic supply, imports increase, and the foreign exchange burden rises — a cycle that now defines the sector,' the report noted.

What Comes Next

With the local harvest yet to arrive and large import commitments already in place, Pakistan's textile sector faces a critical juncture. Without structural reforms in seed policy, farmer support mechanisms, and energy costs for mills, analysts warn the country's position as a major cotton-textile exporter could erode further. The pressure on foreign exchange reserves adds a macroeconomic dimension to what began as an agrarian challenge.