A detailed report has warned that Pakistan's long-term water security cannot be achieved through war rhetoric, diplomatic posturing, or appeals to ancient civilisations — and that the country urgently needs structural improvements in governance and water management. The findings come amid an escalating diplomatic dispute between India and Pakistan over the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which India placed in abeyance following the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir on 22 April 2025, which claimed 26 lives.

Background: The IWT Dispute

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed over 70 years ago, was designed for environmental conditions that no longer exist and does not account for the extreme climate challenges now routine across South Asia. India had been seeking to renegotiate the treaty for years, formally notifying Pakistan of its intent in January 2023. When the treaty was originally signed, India accepted significant constraints on its upstream development projects to accommodate Pakistan's interests — restrictions that limited India's own utilisation of the full potential of the Indus basin, according to a report published in Inkstick Media.

Following the Pahalgam attack — carried out by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) — India placed the IWT in abeyance, citing Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terrorism.

Pakistan's Diplomatic Manoeuvres

Pakistan has pursued multiple legal and diplomatic avenues in response, questioning the legality of the abeyance, issuing threats of military reprisals, and even invoking the possibility of nuclear war, according to the report. Efforts have included appeals to the United Nations Security Council and a day-long conference on the issue held at the end of June.

Notably, Pakistan has also sought to invoke the Indus Valley Civilisation as a source of historical legitimacy to garner international support. Marcus Andreopoulos, a senior research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, writing in Inkstick Media, observed: 'Employing history it has largely ignored to advance a contemporary geopolitical objective is hardly unique to Pakistan.'

The Real Crisis: Governance and Waste

The report argues that Pakistan's water problems are largely self-inflicted. Poor water governance — including inefficient irrigation practices, pollution, and inadequate flood and drought forecasting — contributes more to the country's water crisis than anything India could do by suspending the IWT. According to available data, approximately one-third of Pakistan's water supply flows into the sea without being utilised.

Andreopoulos further noted: 'The widespread use of private tubewells has contributed to excessive groundwater extraction, with water tables reportedly falling by around 1.5 metres each year. These figures suggest a serious weakness in Pakistan's water allocation system and persistent failures to plan effectively for long-term sustainability in its water policy.'

Dam Construction and Political Priorities

Since signing the IWT, Pakistan has developed what the report describes as an 'obsession' with dam construction — a trend that has reduced the natural flow of freshwater and heightened the country's vulnerability to climate change. Much of this dam-building has been directed towards meeting the energy requirements of Punjab, the traditional centre of military and political power in Pakistan.

'Given the military's increasingly prominent role in Pakistan's water governance, this is an unsurprising development,' Andreopoulos wrote. He concluded: 'Pakistan is in bad need of major improvements in governance and water management. Meanwhile, war cries, heated rhetoric, and appeals to ancient history will do nothing to secure the country's long-term water security.'

What Needs to Change

The report points to structural reforms — including modernising irrigation infrastructure, curbing unregulated groundwater extraction, and depoliticising water allocation — as the only credible path to addressing Pakistan's water insecurity. This comes amid growing concerns that South Asia's water crisis will deepen significantly under accelerating climate change, making domestic governance failures increasingly costly to ignore.