Pakistan, bogged down by domestic insurgencies and multi-front border tensions, lacks the military bandwidth to provide meaningful security support to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Pact, according to a new analysis by The Cipher Brief. The assessment comes as escalating Houthi strikes expose the limits of the nascent collective-defence arrangement among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.

Houthi Strikes Undermine the Pact's Credibility

Deadly Houthi missile and drone strikes on Riyadh's international airport on 10 and 11 October killed 12 people and injured approximately 300 others. Notably, these attacks occurred just days after the three-nation pact was formally activated on 5 October, signalling that the new security framework had done little to deter further aggression. The timing has drawn sharp scrutiny over whether the pact carries any credible deterrent weight.

Pakistan's Overstretch: The Pact's 'Most Acute Capacity Problem'

The analysis identifies Pakistan as the arrangement's weakest link. Islamabad is simultaneously managing the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Baloch separatist violence, a contested frontier with Afghanistan, and standing forces opposite India. 'The pact's most acute capacity problem lies in Pakistan,' the report stated, adding that this 'threat landscape will create serious bandwidth issues for Pakistan's military in the immediate to near term, further limiting Islamabad's support for Riyadh.'

The strain was further illustrated by Pakistan's airstrikes inside Afghanistan on 1 October amid recurring border clashes, and the imposition of emergency rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 11 October — the same day as one of the Houthi airport strikes.

Questions Over Pakistan's Role in Yemen

While Islamabad has denied Western media reports of Pakistani troops being deployed in government-held areas of Yemen, the death of a Pakistani driver in a Houthi drone strike in Marib has raised questions over whether Pakistan has quietly assumed a direct combat role alongside Saudi-backed Yemeni forces. The report stopped short of drawing a firm conclusion but flagged it as a development warranting scrutiny.

Turkey Too Has Limits

The analysis cautions against over-relying on Turkey as well, noting that Ankara and Islamabad are both 'unwilling and probably unable' to strike Houthi infrastructure. 'Neither country should be dismissed as a partner, and neither should be treated as an unlimited strategic reserve for a war with no clear end date,' the report stated.

What the Report Recommends

The analysis urges Washington to step up direct military support to Riyadh and Yemen's internationally recognised government — through targeting support, aerial refuelling, air and missile defence, and counter-drone capabilities — without committing to an open-ended bombing campaign. 'The Mecca partners can share the burden, but they cannot yet carry it alone,' the report concluded. The findings suggest that unless the structural deficits within the pact are addressed, the framework risks becoming a diplomatic signal without operational substance.