Indian security agencies are on high alert after intelligence reports indicated that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is allegedly orchestrating demographic changes and radicalisation activities in Nepal's Terai region, which shares an open border with India. The concerns, which surfaced prominently around 15 August, follow a communal clash in Nepal in July that officials believe may be part of a broader, coordinated pattern.

What Intelligence Officials Are Saying

An Intelligence Bureau official stated that Nepal has long been used by Pakistan's spy agency as a transit corridor for moving terrorists into India. The newer concern, according to the official, is a sustained campaign allegedly designed to alter Nepal's demographic and communal landscape over the long term.

'Demographic change is occurring at a rapid pace in Nepal, and this is worrisome as incidents of communal violence are bound to go up. Several Hindu organisations in Nepal have protested several times and have demanded from the government that the rapid pace at which religious conversions are taking place must be halted,' the official claimed.

A second official noted that the Terai region — which borders Uttar Pradesh and other Indian states — has witnessed multiple clashes between Hindu and Muslim communities over the past year. 'The agencies fear that this could spill over into India and the situation could soon turn fragile,' the official said.

Alleged ISI Activity and Madrasa Expansion

Officials alleged that the ISI has invested substantial resources in radicalisation programmes in the Terai. They claimed a sudden increase in madrasas associated with Wahhabi-linked activity in the region, which they believe has contributed to radicalisation. In Nepalgunj, a guest house was reportedly constructed to accommodate members of Dawat-e-Islami (DeI), a Pakistan-origin Islamic missionary organisation. Officials alleged that the organisation has been critical of Hinduism and has encouraged people to reject the religion.

According to officials, these developments have contributed to the emergence of several Islamist organisations in Nepal, with 'large-scale radicalisation and demographic changes' as the reported end result.

The Terai-India Border Risk

Nepalgunj and adjoining Terai areas lie close to the Uttar Pradesh border, including districts near Bahraich — already identified as communally sensitive. Violent clashes were reported in Bahraich in 2024 during a Durga idol immersion procession, involving arson and the invocation of the National Security Act (NSA). Officials drew a direct line between the Terai's instability and the risk of violence crossing into Indian territory through the open border.

Comparison With West Bengal and Northeast

Officials compared the alleged demographic change exercise in Nepal with patterns they have previously flagged in West Bengal and parts of Northeast India. They alleged that ISI-backed elements had facilitated large-scale illegal immigration into these regions, creating demographic pressures and contributing to communal tensions — a template they believe is now being replicated in Nepal.

The Broader Security Concern

Beyond demographic shifts and communal violence, officials warned that the ISI could exploit instability along the Nepal border to facilitate terrorist movement into Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India. The open border between Nepal and India — which allows free movement of people — makes containment particularly challenging. Indian agencies are reportedly coordinating closely to monitor developments and prevent a spillover. All claims in this report are based on statements by unnamed officials and have not been independently verified; Nepal's government has not publicly commented on the allegations.