Pakistan's sluggish economic growth is not merely a fiscal challenge — it is the country's single most serious national security threat, one that no military build-up, diplomatic maneuvering, or managed political stability can offset, according to an analysis published in The Friday Times, a Lahore-based Pakistani newspaper.

A Growth Rate That Barely Keeps Pace

Under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan has recorded its weakest annual growth in six decades, posting just 2.33 per cent — a figure that barely keeps pace with population expansion. The analysis notes that Pakistanis are measurably poorer than they were in 2022, with millions having slipped below the poverty line. Estimates of the poverty rate range from 29 per cent to 40 per cent, depending on the methodology used, though the article argues that the statistical dispute itself obscures a visible and worsening decline.

A Young, Idle Population and the NEET Crisis

Pakistan's median age is approximately 20 years, making it one of the younger populations in South Asia. Yet the country's official NEET rate — the share of youth aged 15 to 24 not in employment, education, or training — stands at 32 to 33 per cent nationally. The Friday Times piece argues that a state cannot sustain strategic strength while its economic foundations are actively eroding, and that the security establishment's relative inaction on this front constitutes its 'greatest strategic miscalculation.'

The Changing Face of War Raises the Stakes

The analysis draws on two recent flashpoints to make its case for economic urgency: the US–Iran confrontation and the India–Pakistan military escalation of May 2025. Both, it contends, signal a structural shift in modern warfare — away from conventional platforms toward networked systems driven by algorithms, autonomous vehicles, and precision-strike capability. Pakistan's armed forces, the article argues, remain largely configured for the industrial-era wars of the twentieth century. Adapting to this new paradigm would require a costly overhaul of the defence ecosystem, estimated at roughly 2 per cent of GDP, and would demand technological capability and intellectual capital that the country currently lacks.

Flat Per Capita Growth and an Absent Economic Strategy

Between 2022 and 2026, Pakistan's real per capita growth was flat or marginally negative, at approximately –0.2 per cent. The article is pointed in its assessment of the civilian administration: it characterises the government as having no genuine growth strategy, relying instead on an IMF-backed stabilisation narrative that it presents as achievement. It further notes that foreign policy decisions during this period were widely attributed to Field Marshal Asim Munir, not the elected civilian government. 'The civilian government is a stranger in its own administration,' the piece states, with real decisions made by officials in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Strategic Miscalculation at the Top

The Friday Times analysis concludes that Pakistan's security establishment continues to treat India, Afghanistan, and terrorism as its primary adversaries, when the more immediate threat is internal economic decay. This comes amid persistent IMF programme conditions, recurring balance-of-payments crises, and a sovereign debt profile that leaves little fiscal headroom for either social investment or defence modernisation. Without a credible economic turnaround, the article warns, Pakistan's strategic position will continue to weaken regardless of its military posture.