The Southwest Monsoon has not yet withdrawn from the Northeastern region of India as of 2 October 2026, even as its retreat has already begun in parts of western India, including Rajasthan and sections of Madhya Pradesh. The eight-state region recorded a combined 26 per cent deficit in average rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September 2026, according to officials of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Withdrawal Status and Timeline

A senior IMD official confirmed that the department is yet to formally declare the monsoon's withdrawal from the Northeast. For reference, in 2025, the Southwest Monsoon withdrew from the Northeastern region on 14 October. The IMD's operational criteria for declaring withdrawal require cessation of rainfall activity for five consecutive days, establishment of an anticyclone in the lower troposphere, and a considerable reduction in moisture content.

The monsoon had advanced into substantial parts of the Northeastern region on 7 June — two days behind its normal onset date — and covered the entire region by 10 June.

State-by-State Rainfall Picture

Meghalaya recorded the steepest shortfall among the eight Northeastern states, logging a 60 per cent deficit — receiving only 1,077.1 mm of actual rainfall against its normal of 2,695.3 mm for the June-to-September period. Manipur followed with a 46 per cent deficit, Arunachal Pradesh with 44 per cent, and Assam with 28 per cent.

Four states fared better. Sikkim and Nagaland recorded 9 per cent and 6 per cent excess rainfall, respectively, placing them in the normal category. Mizoram and Tripura recorded 19 per cent and 16 per cent deficient rainfall — technically within the normal band under IMD norms, which classify rainfall ranging from 19 per cent deficient to 19 per cent excess as normal.

National Monsoon Performance Among Worst on Record

The underperformance was not confined to the Northeast. All-India Southwest Monsoon rainfall for the 2026 season stood at 759.4 mm — 87 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) — making it the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901.

Rainfall over East and Northeast India combined was 1,017.1 mm, the lowest since 1901. South Peninsular India recorded 542.0 mm, the fourth lowest since 1901 and the second lowest since 2001. Northwest India received 94.1 per cent of its LPA, and Central India — at 97 per cent — was the only major zone to record normal seasonal rainfall.

Impact on Agriculture and the Kharif Season

Agricultural scientists and IMD officials note that July rainfall is especially critical for the Kharif season, when sowing gathers momentum across the country, including in the mountainous Northeast. A senior official from the Manipur Agriculture Department said the 46 per cent monsoon deficit, compounded by the state's prolonged ethnic conflict and inadequate irrigation infrastructure, had severely affected farming. The official added that the state government had taken supportive measures to facilitate agricultural activities in both the Imphal Valley and the hill districts during the Kharif cropping season.

Notably, the IMD had earlier flagged concerns about persisting El Niño conditions while revising its seasonal forecast. Despite those conditions, meteorologists had remained cautiously optimistic that the Northeast would receive adequate rainfall before the monsoon's withdrawal — an expectation that, for several states, did not materialise.

What Comes Next

With the monsoon yet to formally exit the Northeast and the last withdrawal date on record being 14 October 2025, the region could see residual rain activity in the coming weeks. However, the cumulative deficit — particularly Meghalaya's historic 60 per cent shortfall — is unlikely to be recovered. Kharif crop assessments and any government relief or compensation measures for affected farmers in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam will be closely watched in the weeks ahead.