Telangana recorded an 18 per cent rainfall deficit during the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June–September), while Andhra Pradesh fared worse with a shortfall of approximately 29 per cent, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Telangana Development Planning Society. The season, which officially concluded on 30 September 2026, was notably weak across the Telugu states despite a partial recovery in its final week.

Telangana: Below Normal but Within the Normal Band

Cumulative rainfall in Telangana from 1 June to 1 October 2026 stood at 615.6 mm against a seasonal normal of 746.3 mm, a deviation of -18 per cent, according to the Telangana Development Planning Society. Despite falling short, the state was classified in the 'normal' category under IMD's meteorological framework, which accommodates deficits of up to 19 per cent within that band.

Of Telangana's 33 districts, 15 recorded normal rainfall. The remaining districts reported deficits ranging between 20 and 43 per cent. Notably, the state capital Hyderabad itself posted a 28 per cent shortfall — one of the more pronounced gaps in an urban centre of its size.

Andhra Pradesh: Rayalaseema Bears the Brunt

Andhra Pradesh's overall 29 per cent deficit masks a sharper disparity within the state. The Rayalaseema region recorded a steep 40 per cent deficit, placing it firmly in the 'deficient' category. Coastal Andhra and Yanam, by contrast, saw a comparatively moderate departure of 17 per cent. The divergence points to uneven distribution that could have significant implications for agriculture and water storage across sub-regions.

National Picture: Fourth Lowest Since 2001

The broader national monsoon was also below par. According to the IMD, all-India summer monsoon rainfall was 759.4 mm, which is 87 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) — making it the 4th lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901.

The South Peninsula fared worse still, receiving only 76 per cent of its LPA at 542 mm — the fourth lowest since 1901 and the second lowest since 2001. This broader regional underperformance contextualises the Telugu states' deficit within a wider climatological pattern affecting peninsular India.

Late-Season Recovery and Cyclonic Activity

The season saw 14 low-pressure systems, including six monsoon depressions, three of which intensified into deep depressions. There were 77 Low Pressure System Days against a normal of 57 days. A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September provided a late push, improving the rainfall situation across parts of Peninsular and Central India, as well as the Indo-Gangetic Plains — though it was not enough to fully offset the cumulative shortfall for the season.

Outlook for Post-Monsoon Season

Looking ahead, the IMD projects that most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the October–December 2026 post-monsoon season. However, southern parts of peninsular India and some areas of Northwest India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. The LPA for South Peninsular India during the post-monsoon period, based on data from 1971–2020, is 334.13 mm, with normal defined as 88–112 per cent of that figure. For Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, this seasonal transition will be closely watched given the deficits already accumulated.