Kolkata, April 25: Trinamool Congress (TMC) General Secretary Abhishek Banerjee made a bold electoral prediction on Saturday, declaring that the party will surpass the double century mark — 200 seats — once the second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concludes on April 29. Speaking at an election rally in Basirhat, North 24 Parganas, Banerjee also claimed that TMC had already crossed the 100-seat milestone in the Phase-1 voting held on April 23.

Abhishek's Bold Seat Projection

Abhishek Banerjee acknowledged that he rarely makes electoral predictions, but when he does, he stands by them. He referenced his similar forecasts ahead of the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections and the 2024 General Elections, both of which he claimed proved accurate for Trinamool Congress.

He stated that out of the 152 seats that went to polls in Phase-1 on April 23, TMC has already secured more than 100 seats, according to his internal assessment. He added that after the remaining 142 seats vote on April 29, the party's tally will comfortably cross 200, though he said he could not predict the final ceiling.

South Bengal — TMC's Electoral Fortress

Political analysts note that the significance of Phase-2 cannot be overstated for Trinamool Congress. The majority of seats going to polls on April 29 are concentrated in South Bengal, which has historically been considered a TMC stronghold.

Districts like South 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hooghly, and parts of Murshidabad form the backbone of TMC's electoral base. A strong performance in these constituencies would be critical to validating Abhishek's 200-seat projection.

This comes amid an intensely fought election cycle where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made significant inroads in Bengal since 2019, and the Left-Congress alliance continues to seek a revival. The 2021 Assembly elections saw TMC win 213 seats out of 294 — a benchmark Abhishek appears to be targeting once again.

Direct Challenge to Amit Shah

Abhishek Banerjee used the Basirhat rally to directly challenge Union Home Minister Amit Shah, daring him to remain in West Bengal until May 4 — the day votes will be counted. This was a pointed political jab, implying confidence in TMC's electoral dominance.

He accused senior BJP leaders from Delhi of attempting to intimidate voters, alleging that the party tried to secure votes through threats and coercion. He asserted that the people of Bengal were neither intimidated nor swayed by such tactics.

In a lighter moment, he also reminded BJP leaders of the intense summer heat sweeping the state and sarcastically advised them to stay hydrated — a remark that drew applause from the crowd.

Electoral Context and What's at Stake

The West Bengal Assembly elections 2025 are being conducted in two phases — an unusual format compared to past multi-phase elections in the state. Phase-1 covered 152 constituencies on April 23, while Phase-2 will cover the remaining 142 constituencies on April 29. Vote counting is scheduled for May 4.

Notably, the Election Commission of India's decision to hold a two-phase election — as opposed to the eight-phase format in 2021 — has itself been a subject of political debate, with opposition parties raising concerns about law and order management across such a large state in fewer phases.

If TMC does cross 200 seats, it would signal a consolidation of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's political grip on the state, potentially strengthening her national ambitions and the party's bargaining power in any future coalition scenario at the Centre.

Track Record of Abhishek's Predictions

Abhishek Banerjee, who is also a Member of Parliament from Diamond Harbour and is widely seen as the second most powerful figure in TMC, has built a reputation for making high-stakes electoral claims. In 2021, TMC's landslide victory of 213 seats broadly aligned with the party's internal projections. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, TMC won 29 out of 42 seats in Bengal, defying national anti-incumbency trends.

With Phase-2 voting on April 29 and results on May 4, all eyes will be on whether Abhishek Banerjee's double-century prediction holds — and what it means for the political trajectory of West Bengal and national opposition politics.