As Typhoon Bavi approached the eastern coast of China on Thursday, 10 July 2026, social media was flooded with amateur storm predictions generated using open-source AI weather models — prompting a sharp warning from state media that such posts could violate national meteorology law.

AI forecasts go viral amid typhoon anxiety

China Media Group, the state broadcaster also known as Voice of China, reported that bloggers describing themselves as 'weather enthusiasts' were publishing typhoon track predictions derived from various open-source artificial intelligence weather models. Some had gone further, reportedly offering location-specific forecasts for a fee. One blogger based in Shandong province posted on Thursday evening that there was a '90 per cent chance' the storm could move deep into Shandong, citing tracking model outputs.

What the law actually says

Under the Meteorology Law of the People's Republic of China, public weather alerts are subject to a centralised release system. Only officially designated meteorological stations — including the National Meteorological Centre — are authorised to issue forecasts and severe weather warnings. Bloggers publishing unsanctioned predictions, particularly for commercial gain, risk running afoul of these provisions.

Why it matters: the risk of public confusion

Huang Xiang, a researcher at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), told the broadcaster that the centralised system exists specifically to prevent public confusion during high-stakes weather events. Conflicting amateur predictions circulating alongside official guidance can undermine evacuation decisions and emergency response coordination, analysts have noted. The concern is especially acute when AI-generated outputs carry the appearance of scientific precision.

The competitive backdrop: AI weather models gain traction

The episode reflects the rapid proliferation of AI-based meteorological tools globally. Models developed by institutions including Google AI and research bodies such as the Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) have demonstrated competitive forecast accuracy, making them increasingly accessible to non-specialist users. Provinces including Fujian and Zhejiang — both in Typhoon Bavi's projected path — faced the real-world consequences of this information environment.

What's next

Regulators have not yet announced specific enforcement actions against individual bloggers, but the state broadcaster's public warning signals that authorities are actively monitoring the space. As AI weather tools become more capable and widely available, China's meteorological regulators face growing pressure to clarify where the line sits between public science communication and illegal forecast dissemination. How the government codifies AI-generated weather content under existing meteorology law will be the key development to watch.