The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has entered its decisive final week in Antalya, Turkey, with ministers now taking the helm after technical negotiators from nearly 200 countries spent seven days narrowing — but far from resolving — fundamental differences over climate finance, adaptation, mitigation, and a just transition. The summit is scheduled to conclude on 20 November 2026.

The first week exposed a sharp fault line: the European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada pushed for stronger links between national commitments and Global Stocktake outcomes, while India, China, and the Arab and African Groups insisted on nationally determined action and demanded adequate finance before accepting higher ambition thresholds. Bridging that gap now falls to ministers.

What Negotiators Agreed — and What They Did Not

Technical teams made incremental progress on carbon markets and adaptation frameworks, but a substantial block of unresolved issues was carried forward to the high-level segment. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell addressed a press summit, urging delegations to accelerate progress and avoid tactical delays. He also called on governments to make climate action more tangible for ordinary communities, pointing to the potential of sports, entertainment, and culture in building public support.

Observers are less sanguine. An unnamed observer told reporters on Sunday: 'A week into COP31 and there's a definite sense of drift. The co-hosts are lying low, work on a main political and cover text seems a mess and levels of support for the 35 per cent by 2035 electrification deal are a mystery.'

Climate Finance: The Most Contested Ground

Climate finance is widely regarded as the summit's most sensitive fault line. Harjeet Singh, Global Convener of the Fill the Fund campaign, said the first week followed a 'familiar pattern': wealthy nations arrived with what he described as 'empty pockets and fossil fuel lobbyists in their delegations.' Scaling up adaptation finance was, he argued, pushed off the agenda on day one, with no new pledge to the Loss and Damage Fund despite what he called a 'monumental finance gap.'

Singh was equally critical of the fate of the Just Transition Mechanism promised at the previous summit in Belém: 'The Just Transition Mechanism promised in Belém has been watered down overnight into a knowledge hub and an annual meeting. Workers and communities cannot eat reports,' he said. His campaign is demanding a time-bound plan to triple adaptation finance to at least $120 billion a year, with grants rather than loans, alongside new pledges to the Loss and Damage Fund.

Voices From the Front Lines

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale delivered one of the summit's most pointed interventions, describing climate change as an immediate lived reality rather than a future projection. 'Saltwater is creeping into our wells, king tides are washing through homes, and families are facing the painful question of whether they can remain on the land their ancestors called home,' he said.

Wale announced that Solomon Islands would make the first pledge to the Green Climate Fund's next replenishment, framing it as an act of leadership despite the country's limited resources. Separately, thousands of participants at the Peoples' Climate Summit — including Indigenous peoples, social movements, peasants, and affected communities — marched through Antalya demanding climate justice.

What the Final Week Must Deliver

Negotiators are expected to push for movement on adaptation resilience targets, clarifications on just transition pathways, and resolution of outstanding questions on international carbon markets. A first draft of a possible agreement text is expected to serve as the basis for more intensive negotiations, though significant differences remain before any final text can be adopted.

This comes amid broader anxiety about whether multilateral climate cooperation can produce binding outcomes rather than statements of intent. COP31 represents the third major stocktake cycle since the Paris Agreement, and pressure is mounting for measurable commitments rather than aspirational language. The final week will be a critical test of whether Antalya can deliver more than its predecessors.