Intelligence agencies in India and Bangladesh have reportedly uncovered a coordinated plan by a Jamaat-e-Islami-led coalition to overthrow the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government through a violent agitation scheduled for November 2026, according to a report published in The Federal. The alleged plot aims to dismantle the current administration and install a 'revolutionary government' modelled on the July Charter, which reportedly envisions a Shariat-driven Islamic state in Bangladesh.

The Alleged Plan and Its Architects

According to the report, the National Citizens Party (NCP) — formed by youth leaders described as close to former Bangladesh interim government chief advisor Muhammad Yunus — is set to spearhead the agitation. The reported objective is to remove current President Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and position Yunus as his replacement.

The strategic planning is allegedly being directed by retired Bangladeshi army officers, with former Brigadier Abdullahil Aman Azmi identified as a central figure. Azmi and his associates reportedly operate from a Defence Officers Housing Society in Dhaka's Banani district, where Pakistani and Turkish intelligence officials serving under diplomatic cover are said to be regular visitors, according to the report.

Two-Phase Strategy: Operation Domon and Militia Formation

Journalist Subir Bhaumik, writing in The Federal, described a two-phase plan attributed to the Azmi-led group. The first phase, dubbed 'Operation Domon' (suppression), allegedly targets the Awami League, which is reportedly preparing a political comeback centred around the potential return of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. According to Bhaumik, the Azmi team is said to have secured the BNP government's tacit cooperation in this effort.

The second phase reportedly involves the formation of an armed militia. Former Bangladesh Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) chief Rezzakul Haider Chowdhury allegedly spent an extended period in Turkey to procure weapons for a force described as an 'Armed Reserve.' The report claims 8,800 radicalised Muslim youths have been handpicked and are currently undergoing month-long combat training that includes modules on law and order operations — raising concerns among analysts that the force is intended for internal deployment rather than external defence.

Foreign Backing Alleged

The plan is allegedly backed by Pakistan, Turkey, and what the report describes as 'some elements within the US Deep State,' though these claims remain unverified and are attributed solely to the source report. Separately, Pakistan's envoy in Dhaka, Imran Haider, has reportedly made frequent visits to Islamic orphanages in recent months. A top Bangladesh National Security and Intelligence (NSI) official, cited in the report, claimed the agency flagged this activity as a potential effort to recruit and groom 'suicide bomber squads' for deployment in Bangladesh and adjoining Indian states.

Why the BNP Coalition Is Reportedly Frustrated

The Islamist coalition is reportedly frustrated by the BNP government's refusal to implement the July Charter or initiate the drafting of a new Islamist constitution. This political deadlock is said to have accelerated the shift toward a covert strategy. Notably, this comes amid broader tensions in Bangladesh following the political transition that brought the BNP to power, with multiple factions vying to shape the country's constitutional direction.

Implications for Regional Security

The report carries a stark warning for India, stating that failure to prevent the alleged Islamist power grab could result in the emergence of a 'Bengali Pakistan' on India's eastern flank, potentially aligned with what it terms the 'US-backed Mecca Alliance.' Such a scenario, analysts note, would fundamentally alter the security calculus across the Bay of Bengal region. How both governments respond to the intelligence inputs in the coming weeks will be closely watched.