Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected that the United States will command 80 per cent of global computing power by 2028, framing the artificial intelligence race as a defining strategic contest between Washington and Beijing. Bessent made the remarks during a wide-ranging conversation at SMU's Cox School of Business in Dallas, underscoring how central AI infrastructure has become to US economic and national security thinking.

The Computing Power Projection

Bessent stated that the US held 50 per cent of global computing capacity in 2025 and was rapidly extending that lead. 'In 2025, the US had 50 per cent of global computing power. By 2028, we're going to have 80 per cent of global computing power,' he said. When asked how much China would hold, Bessent replied: 'China will be 15, and the rest of the world will be the rest of the world.'

Computing power — often referred to as compute — encompasses the chips, data centres, and energy infrastructure required to train and operate advanced AI systems. Access to it has emerged as a primary measure of national and corporate capability in the AI era.

Organic Innovation vs Central Planning

Bessent attributed America's lead to private-sector dynamism rather than state-directed investment. 'Why do we have this big lead in AI? And it's all been completely organic in AI,' he said. He contrasted this with China's approach, arguing: 'The Chinese have their model. They have central planning on AI, which will never work.'

He stressed the urgency of maintaining the advantage. 'We are ahead of the Chinese. We have to stay ahead because if we get behind, nothing else matters,' Bessent said. This framing positions AI supremacy not merely as a commercial goal but as a prerequisite for broader geopolitical relevance.

De-Risking, Not Decoupling

The Treasury secretary also addressed Washington's wider economic relationship with Beijing, drawing a distinction between decoupling and de-risking. 'I managed the China relationship for the US. And I say we don't want to decouple, but we have to de-risk,' he said. He cited the Covid-era supply chain disruptions as evidence of the dangers of over-dependence on overseas production, identifying semiconductors, medicines, and critical minerals as strategic industries that should be reshored for national security reasons.

Notably, Bessent said Washington had included private companies in a G20 session on AI — describing it as the first such move under the current US presidency — where manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and medical technology executives discussed AI applications in supply chains and customer services.

Europe Written Off, Students Warned

Bessent offered a blunt assessment of Europe's standing in the global AI contest. Asked what was happening there in AI, he answered simply: 'Nothing.' He noted that Europe has no large cloud company comparable to Microsoft, Amazon, or Google in the US, or Alibaba and Tencent in China, attributing the gap to risk aversion and a regulatory-first approach.

He also issued a direct warning to students about AI's impact on employment. 'AI is probably not going to take your job. Someone who knows how to use AI will take your job,' he said — a line that captured the dual nature of the technology as both opportunity and displacement risk.

With the US-China AI rivalry intensifying, Bessent's projections signal that Washington views compute dominance as a non-negotiable pillar of its long-term strategic posture.