Pakistan's much-touted economic stabilisation narrative has come under serious scrutiny after revised data from the country's own National Accounts Committee contradicted official claims, according to a new report citing the Greek news website Directus. The revisions reveal that key indicators underpinning Islamabad's recovery story were, reportedly, based on inaccurate figures.

What the Revised Data Shows

The National Accounts Committee recorded a growth of 2.0 per cent in the final quarter of the last financial year, while revising the annual figure downward to 3.65 per cent. More strikingly, it added as much as $14.8 billion to recorded imports across five financial years. The upward revision to import figures suggests that Pakistan's external accounts — the very foundation of Islamabad's stabilisation argument — were significantly understated throughout the period the government claimed to be fixing them.

IMF Contradicts Pakistan's Official Account

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s regional assessment this month reportedly declined to endorse Pakistan's official economic narrative on nearly every count. The IMF projects Pakistan's current account deficit at close to 1 per cent of output, approximately $4.5 billion, versus Islamabad's own estimate of around $2.5 billion. The Fund further warns that the external position will weaken as imports rise and remittances moderate.

Notably, the IMF has flagged that exports have not grown despite years of government incentives. It places Pakistan's gross financing needs at 22 to 25 per cent of output — well above regional peers — and its growth forecast of 3.5 per cent sits below the official projection of 4 per cent. Sector-wise data for the fourth quarter shows that Pakistan's industry contracted by 4.7 per cent, while electricity, gas and water supply shrank by as much as 33.2 per cent.

How the Data Discrepancy Was Uncovered

A finance ministry committee identified discrepancies of roughly $18.13 billion between import data compiled through PRAL and the Pakistan Single Window. The annual gap widened from $1.4 billion in FY2021 to $6.22 billion in FY2025.

The root cause, according to the report, was that the Federal Board of Revenue and the Bureau of Statistics had not updated their data systems since 2017, failing to capture goods entering under newer declaration categories, particularly facilitation schemes. Critically, the discrepancy was not flagged by Pakistan's own institutions — it was revealed when Pakistan's recorded imports from China diverged sharply from China's own recorded export data.

External Account Deteriorating, Not Stabilising

Current data confirms that Pakistan's external account is deteriorating rather than stabilising. The trade deficit for the first quarter of this fiscal year widened more than 15 per cent to $10.79 billion, with imports rising over 13 per cent against export growth of 11 per cent.

The goods deficit on the payments measure widened 21.1 per cent, the current account deficit reached $874 million from $755 million a year earlier, and the overall balance swung to a quarterly deficit of $3.12 billion from a $274 million surplus. This comes amid broader concerns about Pakistan's fiscal credibility, as Islamabad continues to negotiate terms with international lenders.