China's engagement with the world's most volatile flashpoints is driven not by a desire to resolve them, but by a calculated assessment of which conflicts serve Beijing's strategic interests and which threaten them, according to a geopolitical analysis published in the Times of Israel. The assessment, authored by Sergio Restelli, an Italian political advisor and geopolitical expert, argues that Beijing is pursuing leverage and dependency — not peace.

The Strategic Calculus Behind China's Conflict Management

According to Restelli's analysis, Ukraine remains strategically useful to Beijing precisely because it keeps Western powers occupied and deepens Russia's dependence on China. In this framing, a prolonged war in Europe is not a problem for Beijing — it is an asset.

By contrast, rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and North Korea's growing alignment with Moscow are viewed as increasingly dangerous. China is Iran's largest oil customer and a major buyer of Gulf energy, giving it a direct stake in keeping that waterway open. A prolonged closure of the strait would damage Chinese energy security — an outcome Beijing cannot afford.

Taiwan: The Exception to Every Rule

Taiwan occupies a different category entirely. Restelli describes it as an existential issue tied directly to the Chinese Communist Party's domestic legitimacy and the broader United States–China rivalry. At the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, President Xi Jinping warned that if the Taiwan matter were 'handled poorly', the two countries could 'collide or even enter into conflict', cautioning that ties could move into an 'extremely dangerous place.'

Yet at the same summit, Xi also said of the US-China relationship: 'We must make it work and never mess it up.' Restelli characterises this apparent contradiction as the Chinese approach in miniature — red lines must be asserted, but systemic rupture must be avoided.

The Contradiction at the Heart of Beijing's Diplomacy

Restelli draws particular attention to the diplomatic optics surrounding former US President Donald Trump's summit with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin's subsequent visit to Beijing. He argues that the most revealing signal was not either meeting individually, but the contradiction between them.

'China wants to look like the indispensable power in both rooms. It wants Trump to recognise that no global settlement is possible without Beijing. It wants Putin to understand that Russia has no better strategic rear than China,' Restelli wrote. He added that Beijing also wants Tehran, Pyongyang, and Islamabad to know that 'China has channels where others have slogans.'

'Beneath the grandeur, Beijing's message is becoming clearer: it does not want a world in flames. It wants leverage, not disorder. It wants dependency, not escalation. It wants the status quo, adjusted in China's favour, but not blown apart,' he noted.

The Implicit Bargain Beijing May Be Pursuing

Restelli suggests that China's strategic logic could coalesce into an implicit grand bargain: freeze the conflict in Ukraine, reopen the Hormuz corridor, restrain North Korea, keep Russia dependent, and manage Trump through trade and spectacle.

This, he argues, would not constitute a new world order. Instead, it would represent what he calls 'an old imperial habit' — stabilising frontiers, preserving leverage, and calling it peace. The framing positions China not as a peacemaker, but as a careful manager of controlled instability.

Implications for Global Order

The analysis underscores a growing concern among Western strategists: that China's mediation gestures — whether on Ukraine, the Middle East, or the Korean Peninsula — are less about resolution and more about positioning. Each conflict, in Beijing's calculus, is evaluated on its utility to Chinese power, not on humanitarian or rule-based grounds.

As the geopolitical contest between Washington and Beijing intensifies, the question of whether China will eventually be compelled to choose sides — rather than manage both — may define the shape of global diplomacy in the years ahead.