The proposed China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor (CMBC) faces formidable security and geopolitical obstacles that could stall its implementation, according to a report, even as the project gained fresh momentum following Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's visit to China in June 2025. The corridor was among the central agenda items during the visit.

The Security Fault Line

The most critical challenge is the proposed route itself. According to a report in Bangladesh's Daily Sun, the corridor would pass through Myanmar's Rakhine State, where armed conflict has persisted since the military takeover in 2021. 'The Arakan Army now controls or influences much of the territory through which the corridor would run, creating serious uncertainty for long-term infrastructure projects,' the report stated.

Experts cited in the report warned that infrastructure routed through active conflict zones could inadvertently empower armed groups by generating new revenue streams or expanding their influence. They underscored the need for comprehensive security assessments before any commitments are formalised.

The Rohingya Complication

The Rohingya crisis adds a further layer of complexity. Bangladesh currently hosts approximately 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, and analysts argue that any regional connectivity initiative must not be allowed to undercut efforts toward their safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation. This humanitarian dimension makes Dhaka's calculus on the corridor particularly delicate.

Geopolitical Pressures From All Sides

The CMBC is a revival of the original Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor, first proposed in 1999. India subsequently withdrew from the project over concerns about China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing's expanding regional footprint — leaving the corridor without New Delhi's participation.

India's wariness persists. The country remains concerned that the project could deepen China's presence near its strategically sensitive northeastern region and the Siliguri Corridor. Meanwhile, the United States has reportedly encouraged Bangladesh to preserve its strategic balance even as economic ties between Dhaka and Washington deepen.

Financial Scrutiny and Debt Risk

Economists cited in the report cautioned that the financial implications of the corridor warrant rigorous examination. Large-scale infrastructure projects demand substantial upfront investment, sustained maintenance, and commercially viable operations. They argued that any major outlay must be weighed against competing national priorities — including port modernisation, export infrastructure, climate resilience, healthcare, education, and industrial development.

The report pointed to cautionary precedents: the China-Laos Railway, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port all demonstrate that infrastructure alone cannot guarantee economic returns. 'Transparent financing, careful feasibility studies, strong institutions and a competitive domestic economy are equally important,' the report noted.

Bangladesh's Strategic Calculus

Analysts broadly agree that Bangladesh should evaluate the CMBC strictly through the prism of its own national interests rather than as a participant in broader geopolitical competition. The corridor envisions a road and rail network linking Kunming in China's Yunnan province with Bangladesh's ports via Myanmar — a route with transformative trade potential, but one that currently runs through some of the region's most contested territory. How Dhaka navigates these competing pressures will be closely watched in the months ahead.