Pakistan's recurring military strikes on Afghan territory — despite yielding limited results — reflect a troubling sense of impunity and reveal deep structural failures in Islamabad's counterterrorism approach, according to a report by The Diplomat. The strikes have consistently triggered fierce condemnation from Taliban officials, threats of retaliation, and cross-border armed exchanges.

Latest Strikes: Civilian Toll in Kunar and Helmand

In the most recent incident, the Pakistani military carried out airstrikes in the early hours of Thursday, 2 October 2026, targeting civilian homes in Kunar and Helmand provinces. Taliban administration spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said the bombing killed nine people, including women and children, while 11 others were wounded and three houses were destroyed.

Pattern of Escalation Since September

On 24 September, Pakistan launched air and drone strikes against 10 locations inside Afghanistan. Afghan media reported the targets included Kandahar — the base of Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada — along with Khost and Paktia provinces.

Three days earlier, on 21 September, Pakistani airstrikes in Kunar and Paktika killed three civilians — a man, a woman, and a girl. While Islamabad claimed the operation killed 28 militants, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) confirmed the civilian casualties, sparking protests in Kabul and across Afghanistan. Those strikes were in direct response to a 18 September attack on a police compound in Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in which at least 16 police officers were killed. A vehicle-borne explosive device breached the compound during Friday prayers, followed by an armed militant assault. The attack was claimed by the Ittihadul Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP), an alliance led by the Hafiz Gul Bahadar (HGB) group, which has close linkages with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistani authorities identified one of the attackers as an Afghan national.

Scale of Cross-Border Violence in 2026

According to the report, Pakistan has carried out air and drone strikes inside Afghanistan on at least 15 occasions between October 2025 and September 2026. Private estimates suggest that more than 1,100 civilians have been killed or injured by cross-border violence in Afghanistan this year alone. Notably, a strike on a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul in May killed 269 people, prompting calls for the incident to be investigated as a war crime.

Strategic Miscalculation: Seeking a 'Client State'

Beyond targeting the TTP and IMP, analysts argue Pakistan appears to be pursuing a broader strategic objective: reclaiming the leverage it has steadily lost in Kabul. In Islamabad's calculus, the formerly allied Taliban has turned 'rogue', leaving coercive military force and support for anti-Taliban resistance groups as the primary instruments. The ultimate objective, according to the report, is 'a weak and client state in Afghanistan' — an outcome the Pakistani establishment has reportedly pursued for decades.

Critics argue this approach is fundamentally self-defeating. As The Diplomat observed, 'The Taliban seem to have learnt from their former sponsor's playbook the art of cultivating strategic assets and using them as leverage. Attempting to bomb them into submission could be a myopic and counterproductive strategy if there are any lessons learned from the last two decades of American intervention in Afghanistan.'

This comes amid broader regional anxiety over Afghanistan's instability, with India, China, and Central Asian states all watching Islamabad's escalating cross-border operations with growing concern. Whether Pakistan recalibrates its approach or doubles down on coercive tactics is likely to define the Afghanistan-Pakistan dynamic well into 2027.