Pakistan's alliance addiction: loyalty questions and economic strategy gaps
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
Pakistan's growing dependence on multilateral defence pacts is raising sharp questions about its reliability as an alliance partner and the absence of a coherent long-term economic strategy, according to a report by the Politeia Research Foundation. The analysis, published amid Islamabad's deepening economic crisis, argues that Pakistan's alliance choices are driven less by strategic vision and more by the immediate need for financial lifelines from oil-rich partners.
The Mecca Defence Agreement and What It Signals
On 7 August, Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia formalised the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, under which 'any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.' The pact has prompted analysis of the formation, effectiveness, and durability of alliances in the Middle East, with the Politeia Research Foundation report flagging structural weaknesses in Islamabad's approach to such commitments.
A History of Alliance-Hopping
The report characterises Pakistan as uniquely 'addicted to alliances' compared with its South Asian counterparts. The chronology is extensive: the Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement with the United States in 1954; membership of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO, 1954–1973); membership of the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO, 1955–1979); a pivotal role in facilitating the China-Pakistan-US alignment in 1971; membership of the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (2015); and a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia in September 2025. The latest addition is the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement of August this year.
Separately, Pakistan maintains what it describes as an 'all-weather strategic cooperative partnership' with China, coordinating closely on regional and global issues. The report notes that given Pakistan's reliance on Chinese support to manage its rivalry with India, Islamabad 'may find it difficult to act unilaterally on crucial issues in the Middle East without Chinese consent.'
Loyalty Under Scrutiny
Pakistan's track record as an alliance partner draws pointed scrutiny in the report. Despite SEATO membership, Islamabad did not support the United States during the Vietnam War in the 1970s. After receiving what it considered inadequate backing from CENTO members during the 1965 and 1971 conflicts with India, Pakistan withdrew from that framework altogether.
Following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan channelled US military assistance to the Mujahideen while simultaneously using that support to bolster its own military capabilities vis-à-vis India. After the 9/11 attacks, Islamabad pursued what the report describes as a dual policy — backing the US-led military intervention while also providing shelter to the Taliban.
More recently, during what the report refers to as the 'Iran War,' Pakistan chose to position itself as a neutral mediator rather than back its Arab partners — a posture the report describes as 'less-than-satisfactory' for an alliance member.
Why Middle Eastern States Still Want Pakistan
Despite this record, Pakistan has been brought into the Mecca Defence Agreement. The report suggests two explanations: Pakistan's status as a nuclear-armed state makes it a strategically valuable partner for Middle Eastern countries; and for Turkey specifically, Pakistan represents a significant defence export market. The economic dimension — Islamabad's dependence on Gulf states for short-term financial relief — runs as an undercurrent throughout, underscoring what the report calls a structural absence of long-term economic planning.
What This Means Going Forward
The convergence of Pakistan's nuclear deterrent, its chronic economic vulnerability, and its layered alliance commitments creates a complex strategic picture. Analysts will be watching whether the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement proves more durable than its predecessors — or whether Islamabad's pattern of selective compliance reasserts itself when alliance obligations conflict with its bilateral interests, particularly with China.