The deepening political crisis in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has laid bare a profound disconnect between the region's population and a regional administration widely described as 'toothless' and entirely subservient to Islamabad, according to a report by the International Centre for Peace Studies. The unrest, which has left dozens dead, has intensified following Islamabad's decision to ban the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) on 5 June and deploy lethal force against protesters.

The Ban That Sparked the Unrest

Pakistani authorities outlawed the JAAC — a grassroots resistance group — on 5 June, branding it a 'terrorist' organisation. The move was widely seen as an attempt to suppress organised local dissent. According to the report, Islamabad has historically exercised political control over PoK through Pakistan's mainstream parties, which have dominated the region's governance for decades, while steadily shrinking the space available to indigenous political movements.

The report argues that the decision to deploy lethal force reflects a broader military-driven strategy to crush genuine local resistance and demands for political reform — not an isolated law-and-order response.

Elections as a Facade, Not a Fix

The report highlights a telling pattern: the party in power in Islamabad has consistently won elections in both PoK and Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB) — an outcome it argues can 'hardly be dismissed as mere coincidence.' It characterises the electoral process as a 'facade', noting that conditions on the ground compel locals to align with whichever party holds federal power.

The report further notes that if shared party control between the federal and regional levels were genuinely conducive to better governance, PoK should have emerged as one of Pakistan's more developed regions. Instead, it remains among the 'least developed and exploited' — a characterisation that also applies to PoGB.

Violence and the Military Establishment's Role

JAAC leader Shaukat Nawaz Mir wrote on X that the 'State has begun a massacre of our people in Rawalakot', drawing attention to what the report describes as an unprecedented scale of violence by Pakistani authorities in the region. The report characterises this as the first instance of such large-scale violence by Islamabad specifically aimed at suppressing local resistance in PoK.

According to the report, Pakistan's military establishment has demonstrated a willingness to go to 'any extent' — including resorting to a 'killing spree' — to preserve the existing political order in the region.

What the July 27 Elections Could Mean

With General Elections in PoK scheduled for 27 July, the report warns that the vote is unlikely to bring structural change. It concludes that the elections are highly likely to perpetuate the cycle of violence, entrenching a 'puppet regime' aligned with the military establishment's centralising agenda while 'completely ignoring the real grievances of the Kashmiri people.'

The report adds that Islamabad's interference in local politics makes it 'unlikely' that it would be willing to alter the existing political structure in any meaningful way. As the election date approaches, the trajectory — according to the report — points toward continuity of control, not reform.