Polling in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) commenced on Monday, 27 July amid widespread allegations that the Pakistan military is actively working to manipulate the electoral outcome, raising serious questions about the credibility of the democratic process in the region. The first phase covers 13 Assembly constituencies across the districts of Bhimber, Mirpur, and Kotli, with more than 1.4 million registered voters eligible to cast their ballots.

Scale of the First Phase

More than 2,500 polling stations have been established across the three districts for the first phase. Of the approximately 300 candidates contesting the 13 seats, 135 are in the running from Kotli alone, which accounts for six of the constituencies. In Mirpur and Bhimber, around 750,000 voters will determine the fate of the remaining seven seats. The PoK government declared a public holiday on polling day and appealed for high voter participation.

Allegations of Military Interference

Officials and observers have said there is little doubt that the Pakistan military is seeking to engineer the result. According to reports, the military — currently under Field Marshal Asim Munir — is said to favour the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) retaining power in PoK, given its comfort in working with the party, which also leads Pakistan's federal government. Critics have long accused the PML-N leadership of acting at the military's behest. The military, officials suggest, is eager to install a compliant administration in PoK following a recent wave of protests that embarrassed the security establishment.

AAC Boycott and Protest Backdrop

The Awami Action Committee (AAC), which has led protests in PoK for more than two months demanding basic infrastructure and development, has called for a complete boycott of the elections. The AAC has described the electoral process as a 'predetermined exercise with a pre-decided outcome' and dismissed it as a sham. It has accused the military of manipulating political outcomes not only in PoK but across Pakistan. Experts note that the protests drew solidarity from a large section of the population. 'A large majority of the people of PoK have stood in solidarity with the AAC during the protests. In fact, the protests this time around have clearly shown that nearly 90 per cent of the people of this region are fed up with the establishment,' observers point out.

Restrictions and Opposition Concerns

Ahead of polling, authorities banned political rallies and public gatherings, citing security concerns, insisting the restrictions were necessary to ensure a peaceful voting process. The opposition has questioned the credibility of the exercise despite the administration's assertion that all necessary measures have been taken to ensure free and fair elections. Pakistan observers argue that voter turnout in this first phase will serve as a critical barometer of public confidence — a low turnout, they contend, would signal that many residents have lost faith in the system entirely.

Parties and What Comes Next

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People's Party (PPP), and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) are among the major parties contesting the seats. Observers say the first phase is expected to set the tone for subsequent rounds of polling. The military, according to officials, aims to maintain complete control over PoK's political landscape to suppress any future protests. Whether the turnout vindicates or undermines the AAC's boycott call will be closely watched as results emerge.