The Quad is likely to remain central to Indo-Pacific regional strategy, with India positioned as a key partner, according to a report published by Modern Diplomacy on 14 June 2025. The assessment comes amid persistent speculation about the grouping's long-term trajectory, following the postponement of a leaders' summit and shifting geopolitical priorities in Washington.

Ministerial Meeting Signals Continued Relevance

The recent Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting in New Delhi served as a visible reaffirmation of the grouping's strategic importance. Foreign ministers of Japan and Australia underscored their strong bilateral partnerships with India and expressed support for the Quad's role in shaping the regional security architecture.

The visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to New Delhi emerged as a particularly significant development. Rubio repeatedly stressed the importance of India-US relations, signalling Washington's sustained commitment to engagement with New Delhi and the broader Indo-Pacific. At a joint press briefing with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Rubio described India as 'one of the most important strategic partners' for the United States globally, citing alignment on critical minerals, supply chains, and counter-terrorism.

The Core Challenge: India-US Bilateral Tensions

The Modern Diplomacy report argues that the Quad's greatest internal challenge lies not in the trilateral relationship among India, Australia, and Japan, but in the complexities surrounding India-US ties. Trade disputes, visa-related concerns, growing US engagement with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, and broader political differences have introduced uncertainty into the bilateral relationship over the past year.

Speculation about the Quad's possible weakening had also been fuelled by President Donald Trump's perceived lack of enthusiasm for the grouping and a comparatively conciliatory posture toward China. The ministerial-level meeting, however, is seen as evidence that the United States remains invested in the region and continues to view the Quad as a key strategic platform.

Stabilisation Efforts and Shared Interests

Both countries have taken steps to steady the relationship. India extended an invitation to the United States to participate in the AI Impact Summit in February 2026. Ongoing trade negotiations continue, and Washington's decision to include India in the Pax Silica initiative — focused on critical mineral supply chains — reflects the depth of shared strategic interests.

The report notes that the relationship is grounded in shared democratic values, freedom of expression, multiculturalism, and a commitment to a rules-based international order. 'The US needs India as much as India needs the US,' the report states, framing the partnership as mutually indispensable rather than asymmetric.

China's Shadow and the Quad's Strategic Logic

China's growing regional influence and assertive posture continue to be primary drivers of the Quad's strategic relevance, according to the report. It argues that the original motivations behind the grouping remain valid and that Washington will continue to require multilateral platforms such as the Quad to maintain regional stability and safeguard its influence in the Indo-Pacific.

While Australia, India, and Japan have demonstrated the capacity to sustain the Quad independently, the report concludes that 'strong US involvement in the Indo-Pacific security mechanism will remain a cornerstone of the Indo-Pacific architecture.' Closer strategic coordination among Quad members — particularly between Washington and New Delhi — will be essential for preserving regional balance and the bloc's long-term cohesion.