Locking down Islamabad and Rawalpindi will not help Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government contain a crisis rooted in chronic mismanagement of economic, political, and governance failures, according to a detailed analysis published in Pakistani daily The Friday Times. The assessment comes as authorities prepare to block a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) protest march scheduled for 27 September, deploying hundreds of containers and ordering sweeping bans on public gatherings.

The Economic Pressure Cooker

Moonis Ahmar, Professor of International Relations and former Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Karachi, argues that the Pakistani government is systematically squeezing citizens to fund debt servicing and state expenditure. He noted that even as global crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel, authorities in Islamabad declined to pass on any relief, continuing daily revisions of petrol and diesel prices upward. Pakistan, he wrote, is the only country in the world that reviews fuel prices on a daily basis.

The economic strain extends well beyond fuel. Ahmar highlighted concurrent increases in electricity tariffs, gas prices, and the cost of vegetables, fruits, meat, milk, flour, and cooking oil — a convergence that has fuelled public anger across income groups.

Protests Met With Force, Not Policy

Two major protest movements are currently challenging the government. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) has been marching against the petroleum levy and rising fuel prices, while the PTI is mobilising for the release of its founding chairman, Imran Khan, and against the surge in prices of essential commodities. According to Ahmar, neither movement has been met with substantive policy response; instead, authorities have resorted to large-scale arrests and physical barriers.

Ahead of the PTI march, local authorities in Islamabad imposed a two-month ban on all gatherings of five or more persons, processions, rallies, and demonstrations at any public place in the capital, including the Red Zone, as reported by Pakistani newspaper Dawn. The Punjab government separately enforced a 13-day ban on public gatherings across the province, closing roads and businesses in and around Attock and Rawalpindi, and deploying Rangers paramilitary forces in four districts.

Constitutional Amendments and the Taming of Institutions

Ahmar pointed to the 26th and 27th constitutional amendments as instruments that have given the military establishment and its civilian partners broad powers to suppress dissent. With the judiciary reportedly 'tamed,' independent media 'neutralised,' and civil society weakened, coalition partners have shown little appetite for democratic course correction, the analysis argued. He warned that the current approach is sustainable only until civil society leaders, lawyers, journalists, and youth decide to mount a more determined challenge to the status quo.

Image and Strategic Cost of the Lockdown

'Sealing Islamabad and Rawalpindi from the rest of the country will not help manage a crisis which is of a critical nature,' Ahmar wrote, stressing that beyond the economic cost of the capital lockdown, Pakistan's international image stands to suffer. He noted that if any 'brainstorming' is underway in military circles to avert a civil war-like scenario, it would reflect 'sanity and strategic prudence.' He concluded that the coalition government, through its mismanagement, has 'thoroughly exposed its position.'

With the PTI march days away and no sign of political negotiation, the situation in Pakistan's capital region is being closely watched as a test of the government's ability to manage compounding crises without further institutional damage.