The Trump administration on Sunday, 21 June indicated that Iran may be permitted to retain a limited missile capability under a future nuclear and security agreement, marking a significant departure from its earlier hard-line position that Tehran must completely dismantle its ballistic missile programme. The shift emerged as US Vice President JD Vance prepared to open direct talks with Iranian officials, with both sides looking to build on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached following months of military confrontation in the Gulf.

What the Administration Said

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking during an interview on ABC's 'This Week', suggested that the total elimination of Iran's missile arsenal was no longer the administration's stated objective. Asked about President Donald Trump's recent remarks that Iran could hold missiles proportionate to those of neighbouring countries, Wright said: 'Need it go to zero? No, it probably doesn't need to go to zero, is what the president's saying.'

Wright further argued that significant military progress had already been achieved. 'We've probably degraded their ability to make missiles by 90 per cent. That is a massive — I think you could call that an obliteration of their missile-making industry,' he said. He also noted that Iran had spent decades building military capabilities that far outpaced those of its regional neighbours, adding: 'In the meantime, they have been just massively more armed than all their neighbours. That has been degraded massively.'

Trump's Shifting Position

The policy evolution is notable given Trump's earlier, far more categorical language. The President had previously declared that the United States would 'destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated.' More recently, however, Trump appeared to soften that position considerably.

'If Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and they all have some, I would say in relative proportion, I think, it's okay,' Trump said when asked whether Iran could retain ballistic missiles under a future settlement. The framing suggests a regional parity benchmark — rather than zero — may now anchor US negotiating demands.

Context and Background

The remarks come amid a broader diplomatic effort to formalise an arrangement with Tehran following a period of heightened military tensions in the Gulf. The MoU referenced by both sides has not been made fully public, and its specific terms regarding Iran's missile holdings remain unclear. Notably, Iran's missile programme has long been a sticking point in any negotiations, distinct from — though linked to — the nuclear file.

This is not the first time a US administration has grappled with how to treat Iran's conventional military capabilities alongside nuclear commitments. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did not directly address Iran's ballistic missiles, a gap that critics argued undermined the deal's long-term value.

What Comes Next

Vice President Vance's planned talks with Iranian officials are expected to test how far the two sides can translate the MoU framework into binding commitments. The question of what 'proportionate' missile capability means in practice — and who verifies it — is likely to dominate the next phase of negotiations. Regional powers including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will be watching closely, given that Iran's missile reach directly affects their security calculus.