Pakistan is confronting a severe natural gas shortage after disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar — triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict that has effectively choked the Strait of Hormuz — began squeezing the country's energy infrastructure, according to reports. The crisis is threatening households, factories, power plants, and fertiliser producers as winter demand approaches.

Scale of the Supply Gap

According to data from Pakistan's electricity system and market operator, the power sector alone could require as much as 400 million cubic feet of gas per day during the winter months. Yet only two LNG cargoes had been confirmed for September, each containing roughly 140,000 cubic metres — equivalent to just over a week's supply. That gap between projected demand and confirmed delivery underscores the urgency of the situation.

Pakistan has been actively scouting alternative LNG cargoes on international spot markets, but the timing could hardly be worse. Spot LNG prices have surged to approximately $30 per million British thermal units, meaning any replacement volumes will come at a steep premium. Buying at those prices risks driving up both electricity bills and industrial gas tariffs, adding inflationary pressure to an economy already under stress.

Emergency Measures Already Underway

Confronting immediate power shortfalls, Pakistani authorities have run furnace-oil-fired power plants at full capacity and deferred scheduled maintenance at certain nuclear power plants. Authorities reported a power shortfall of around 3,400 megawatts at one point, partly compounded by lower-than-normal hydropower generation. These are stop-gap measures, not structural fixes, and analysts warn they cannot be sustained through a full winter without adequate gas.

Diplomatic Track to Reopen the Route

According to officials cited in regional reports, Islamabad has invoked diplomatic channels with Qatar, Iran, and the United States to facilitate the passage of Qatari LNG cargoes covered by long-term contracts through the Strait of Hormuz. The effort faces a practical obstacle beyond state-level diplomacy, however: whether vessel crews and marine insurers are willing to operate under current security conditions in the strait remains an open question, and commercial operators ultimately make that call independently of governments.

Industrial Sector Sounds the Alarm

Pakistan's industrial community is watching the situation with growing anxiety. Business groups warn that prolonged shortages through the winter could disrupt production and, in a worst case, force factory closures. Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry President Mian Nasser Hyatt Maggo said that managing the balance between gas demand and supply was the government's direct responsibility, and that cargoes needed to be secured well in advance to prevent production disruptions. This comes amid an existing environment of high energy costs, meaning manufacturers have limited cushion to absorb further shocks.

Why This Winter Is Critical

The pressure is set to intensify. Gas demand typically rises sharply in winter as households increase consumption for heating, adding a residential load on top of existing industrial and power-sector requirements. Imported LNG accounted for roughly one-fifth of Pakistan's total gas consumption between July 2025 and March 2026, according to official data, underscoring how dependent the country's energy mix has become on uninterrupted seaborne supply. Any prolonged disruption to that pipeline now carries economy-wide consequences. How quickly Islamabad can secure alternative cargoes — and at what cost — will define Pakistan's energy stability heading into the coldest months.