Intelligence agencies operating in Punjab are recalibrating their surveillance strategy in response to a deliberate tactical shift by pro-Khalistan groups, who have moved away from overt agitation toward a subtler, harder-to-detect form of soft propaganda. According to officials, the pivot toward human intelligence (HUMINT) is now central to the counter-strategy, as technical surveillance tools prove inadequate against activities that appear legitimate on the surface.

The Strategic Shift in Pro-Khalistan Activity

Pro-Khalistan groups have progressively moved their operations from urban centres into rural Punjab, where small clubs, community halls, and religious spaces are being used to quietly spread messaging, according to officials familiar with the matter. The gatherings are deliberately kept small to avoid drawing attention, and the tone of the propaganda has been softened — a calculated move, officials say, to stay below the radar of security agencies.

An Intelligence Bureau official noted that the hard-edged Khalistan agenda of the past — once propagated through books, pamphlets, flags, flyers, and explicit social media campaigns celebrating political assassinations and targeting foreign diplomats — has been largely abandoned in its current form. 'The in-your-face Khalistan agenda is no longer being pushed,' the official said, attributing the retreat to the movement's failure to gain traction due to its association with violent ideology.

What Soft Propaganda Looks Like Now

The current wave of soft propaganda focuses on alleged human rights violations by police during the peak of militancy in Punjab, the airing of community grievances both large and small, the screening of biopics and documentaries presenting a one-sided historical narrative, and the playing of protest music. These elements are deployed at regular intervals with the intent of making them the dominant topic of conversation among the youth.

Officials warn that such content, sustained over time, risks becoming the prevailing narrative in rural society — which is precisely the outcome pro-Khalistan groups are working toward. Critically, none of this activity is easily actionable under existing law. Discussing alleged police excesses in a religious space, for instance, cannot by itself lead to an arrest, but sustained exposure to such messaging can, officials argue, gradually shape perceptions among younger audiences who did not live through the era of militancy.

Why Technical Surveillance Falls Short

The nature of these gatherings presents a structural challenge for law enforcement. Because the events are framed as community or religious meetings, technical surveillance is difficult to justify or deploy. Officials acknowledged that agencies cannot readily explain why a seemingly routine gathering is being monitored, creating legal and reputational risk if they act without sufficient cause.

This is compounded by the fact that pro-Khalistan groups reportedly want agencies to intervene — particularly in religious spaces — anticipating that heavy-handed action would generate a public backlash that could, in turn, lend credibility to their grievance narrative. It is a calculated provocation, officials say.

HUMINT: The New Counter-Strategy

The response has been a decisive shift toward human intelligence. Agencies are now relying on local individuals embedded in communities to serve as observers — tracking what is being discussed, how frequently such events occur, and whether the messaging is escalating. This allows agencies to maintain situational awareness without triggering the backlash that overt action might provoke.

Officials identified community elders — those who lived through the violence of the Khalistan militancy at its peak — as the most valuable HUMINT assets in this context. These individuals carry firsthand knowledge of the atrocities committed against ordinary villagers and are positioned not only to report on pro-Khalistan activity but also to actively counsel younger generations against involvement. Their credibility within rural communities makes them a natural counterweight to the soft propaganda now in circulation.

The Broader Context

This development comes against the backdrop of a long-running effort by elements within the Sikh diaspora, primarily based in Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, to sustain the Khalistan cause through non-violent means after the movement's violent phase was suppressed in the early 1990s. The shift to soft propaganda represents an evolution of that strategy — one that Indian intelligence agencies are now racing to understand and counter before it takes root among a new generation in rural Punjab.

How effectively HUMINT networks can be built and maintained in the state's villages will likely determine whether this latest iteration of the Khalistan campaign gains any foothold.