Nearly 80 million barrels of crude oil are poised to transit the Strait of Hormuz as a tentative US-Iran peace agreement raises hopes of a sustained reopening of the world's most critical energy shipping corridor. According to data compiled by Vortexa and cited in multiple reports, approximately 40 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loaded with non-sanctioned Gulf crude are currently stationed inside the Persian Gulf, with Iranian oil and smaller tankers adding further volume to the supply queue.

Scale of Waiting Supply

The 40 VLCCs represent only part of the picture. Iranian crude and smaller tankers also positioned within the Gulf mean the true volume of supply awaiting transit is considerably higher than the headline 80 million barrels, according to Vortexa data. Prior to disruptions triggered by the US-Iran conflict, approximately 15 million barrels per day of Gulf crude routinely transited the Strait to Asian buyers — underlining the scale of what has been held back.

Ships Already Moving Toward Asia

Roughly 21 VLCCs are reportedly signalling destinations toward Asia. Of these, five are bound for China, five are heading toward ship-to-ship transfer hubs near Malaysia and Singapore, and at least three vessels were observed approaching the Strait at normal speeds, according to the same data. Separately, three Saudi supertankers reappeared in the Gulf of Oman earlier this week, widely read as a signal that traffic is resuming. Shipping groups, however, have cautioned that security risks along the route remain a concern.

Iran's New Transit Rules

Even as the waterway reopens, Iran has introduced revised regulations governing vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Under the new procedures, ship owners and operators must submit transit requests at least 48 hours before arriving at the Strait. Vessels are required to register in advance and obtain permits and insurance before entering the corridor. Iran has stipulated that all required information must be provided ahead of time to avoid delays at entry and exit points — adding a layer of administrative friction to what was previously an open passage.

Market and Inflation Impact

The tentative peace deal has already moved markets. Crude prices fell sharply to around $75 a barrel following the agreement, according to reports. Analysts expect the renewed flow of Gulf crude to ease global supply tightness and put downward pressure on inflation in the months ahead. This comes amid broader global concern over energy price-driven inflation, making the Hormuz reopening a development with consequences well beyond the Gulf region.

What Happens Next

The durability of the US-Iran agreement will be the decisive variable. Shipping industry groups have stopped short of declaring the corridor fully safe, and Iran's new permit regime introduces uncertainty for operators accustomed to freer passage. If the deal holds and transit normalises, Asian refiners — particularly in China, India, and South Korea — stand to benefit from a surge in available Gulf crude. Any breakdown, however, could rapidly reverse the price decline and reignite supply anxiety.