Russia has proposed building a railway corridor to the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan, framing it as a strategic alternative to the Strait of Hormuz amid mounting tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The proposal, reportedly floated by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, could redraw Eurasian trade routes — but analysts warn that the execution challenges are as formidable as the ambition.

What Russia Is Proposing

According to reports, Khusnullin has argued that given potential risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Moscow should explore overland alternatives for accessing South Asian markets. The proposed route would link Russia to the Indian Ocean via Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, bypassing Western-controlled sea lanes. The corridor is envisioned to carry oil, gas, fertilisers, and industrial goods to South Asia and beyond, reducing Moscow's dependence on maritime chokepoints including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bosphorus.

How It Stacks Up Against China's BRI

The proposed corridor sits in direct tension — and potential overlap — with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing already holds a strong foothold in the region through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects western China to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar Port. A parallel Russian route through Afghanistan and Pakistan could dilute China's leverage over South Asian trade flows.

Notably, Russia's emphasis on connecting with India — which has resisted joining the BRI over sovereignty concerns related to CPEC — positions Moscow as a potential alternative infrastructure partner for New Delhi. This corridor could, in theory, offer nations a transcontinental trade route outside Beijing's sphere of influence.

At the same time, the plan could complement rather than compete with parts of the BRI, particularly in Iran, where Chinese and Russian investments already overlap. Both nations share an interest in reducing dependence on Western-controlled maritime routes, and coordination could allow them to pool resources and strengthen their collective bargaining power against Western sanctions.

Links to the INSTC

The proposed Afghan route could also integrate with the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km multimodal network of road, rail, and sea links connecting Azerbaijan, Central Asia, Europe, India, Iran, and Russia. If Moscow successfully merges its new corridor with the INSTC, the combined network would represent one of the most expansive trade arteries in Eurasia — though that integration itself remains complex and contested.

Security and Engineering Challenges

Afghanistan remains the most critical obstacle. The country continues to face deep instability, making large-scale railway construction and sustained operation highly risky. Pakistan's volatile border regions and its persistent struggles with militancy and political upheaval add further uncertainty.

Western sanctions on Russia complicate international financing and technology partnerships. Inhospitable terrain across Central Asia and the absence of existing rail networks across key stretches raise the engineering and cost bar significantly.

For India, which has engaged Russia in talks on railway cooperation including modernisation and signalling systems, a route transiting Pakistan raises acute safety and security concerns — making New Delhi's participation in any such corridor far from straightforward.

What Comes Next

The proposal remains at an exploratory stage, and no formal bilateral agreements have been reported. Whether Moscow can reconcile its overlapping ambitions with Beijing, navigate the security minefield in Afghanistan, and secure financing under sanctions will determine whether this corridor moves from geopolitical concept to ground-level infrastructure.