A report by the International Centre for Peace Studies has warned that Pakistan's security establishment could once again exploit domestic instability and regional threats to consolidate institutional dominance — perpetuating a cycle in which short-term stabilisation comes at the cost of long-term democratic and economic development. The findings, released on 23 October, paint a sobering picture of a country navigating simultaneous economic, political, and security crises.

The Core Pattern: Military Influence Through Managed Crises

The report argues that Pakistan's current trajectory is not a departure but a continuation of entrenched historical behaviour. As the country faces mounting economic reform pressures, persistent political turmoil, and active insurgencies, the risk of history repeating itself remains significant, according to the study.

Crucially, the report highlights how Pakistani authorities have at various times received Western financial and military support while framing domestic and regional threats as justification for expanded defence spending. The study states: 'Such policies have, at various times, received Western financial and military support. The threat from Afghanistan could once again serve this purpose, potentially reinforcing a cycle in which a new militant group like the TTP emerges, creating new security challenges and providing further justification for military expenditure.'

KP Insurgency and Federal-Provincial Tensions

The surge in militant attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has deepened fault lines between the federal government in Islamabad and the provincial administration, the report noted. The provincial government has reportedly advocated counterterrorism strategies tailored to local complexities — a stance that has created friction with the centre. Critics argue this divergence undermines coordinated security responses and opens space for military institutions to position themselves as the only credible arbiter.

Balochistan Insurgency Remains a Flashpoint

The report also flagged the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, marked by a recent surge in attacks on military convoys, as a significant and worsening challenge. The province has long been a theatre for low-intensity conflict, and analysts warn that the uptick in violence could further entrench security-state logic in Islamabad's policymaking.

Pakistan-Afghanistan Border: A Deteriorating Relationship

The report highlights how border tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated sharply after the Taliban's return to power in 2021 — contrary to Islamabad's initial expectations that the new Kabul regime would help secure the western frontier. Instead, clashes broke out along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border, and Pakistan has since experienced a marked surge in militant attacks.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban administration of providing safe havens to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which it holds responsible for many of the attacks. The Taliban, however, rejects these allegations and, according to the report, holds Pakistan responsible for its own security problems — leaving the bilateral relationship in a state of mutual recrimination with no resolution in sight.

What Comes Next

The report's broader concern is structural: unless Pakistan breaks the pattern of using security threats to justify military entrenchment, neither democratic consolidation nor sustainable economic reform is likely to take hold. As the country heads deeper into a complex web of internal and external pressures, observers will be watching whether civilian institutions can assert meaningful oversight — or whether the security establishment once again sets the national agenda.