A new report has argued that Taiwan's long-term survival depends not on distant allies alone, but on forging a deep, practical defence partnership with Japan — its closest capable neighbour and the country most directly threatened by any Chinese military move on the island. The assessment comes as Beijing continues to incorporate a Taiwan invasion scenario into its military exercises and political doctrine.

The Strategic Case for a Japan-Taiwan Defence Axis

Khedroob Thondup, nephew of Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, laid out the argument in a report published in the European Times. 'For Taiwan, survival depends not only on its own resilience but on the strength of its alliances. Among potential partners, Japan stands out as the most proximate, capable and politically aligned actor,' he wrote. 'Taiwan must therefore deepen its defence linkages with Japan, not as a symbolic gesture, but as a strategic necessity.'

The geographical logic is hard to dispute. The Ryukyu Islands form a natural corridor stretching from Kyushu to Taiwan — a chain through which any Chinese military operation targeting the island would inevitably pass. That reality means Japan's southern flank and its sea lines of communication would be directly imperilled if Taiwan were to fall.

Intertwined Fates: Why Each Side Needs the Other

Thondup argues the dependency runs in both directions. A Taiwan isolated from regional support would be gravely weakened; equally, a Japan that loses Taiwan as a buffer faces its own strategic exposure. 'Their fates and defence are intertwined,' the report stated, adding that a closer defence framework would 'bolster deterrence by complicating China's calculus and increasing the costs of aggression.'

The report recommends that Taiwan and Japan pursue regular joint military exercises to improve interoperability, enhanced intelligence sharing on Chinese military activities, coordinated logistics and contingency planning for a prolonged conflict, and legal frameworks that would enable the deployment of Japanese forces in support of Taiwan's defence.

China's Coast Guard Patrols Add to Tensions

The report arrives against a backdrop of rising friction in waters surrounding Taiwan. Last month, Taiwan criticised the China Coast Guard (CCG) for conducting patrols east of the island, with Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) calling the action an unlawful expansion of authority in contravention of international law. The MAC stated that China has 'no sovereignty, jurisdiction, or law enforcement authority in waters east of Taiwan.'

In a formal statement, the MAC said: 'Repeating an illegal act does not make it lawful, nor will such actions gain international recognition.' The council confirmed that Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) and all relevant government agencies would take necessary measures to protect national sovereignty and the security of surrounding waters.

Taiwan's Wider Democratic Alignment

Taiwan also reaffirmed its commitment to working alongside democratic partners to uphold freedom of navigation and the security of regional sea lanes, while firmly opposing any attempts to alter the international order through force or coercion. Thondup's conclusion was unambiguous: 'The time for ambiguity has passed. The time to deepen practical defence cooperation is now.'