As North India enters the paddy-harvest season in October 2026, authorities are racing to contain stubble burning — the annual agricultural practice that sends a toxic haze across the National Capital Region (NCR) every winter. While early satellite data shows a significant drop in fire incidents in key states, the threat of severe smog in New Delhi remains far from over.

Where Fires Have Fallen — and Where They Have Risen

Between 15 September and 12 October, stubble-burning incidents declined sharply compared with the same period last year. Haryana recorded a reduction of 53.3 per cent, while Uttar Pradesh registered a decline of approximately 32 per cent. However, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan bucked the trend with higher incident counts, raising concerns within the Union Agriculture Ministry.

Notably, authorities have begun scrutinising not just the number of fires detected by satellites but also the actual area burned — after concerns emerged that fire-count figures may understate the true extent of residue burning on the ground.

Why Farmers Still Burn

In Punjab, Haryana, and parts of western Uttar Pradesh, paddy is harvested in late September and October. Farmers then have a narrow window — often just two to three weeks — to prepare fields for the wheat sowing season. Burning paddy straw remains the cheapest and fastest way to clear fields, despite its documented environmental cost.

According to the government's Crop Residue Management Operational Guidelines 2026, burning one tonne of paddy straw releases an estimated 3 kg of particulate matter, 60 kg of carbon monoxide, 1,460 kg of carbon dioxide, 199 kg of ash, and 2 kg of sulphur dioxide, in addition to other pollutants. The guidelines also noted substantial loss of soil nutrients and organic matter as a consequence of the practice.

Government Spending: ₹4,266 Crore and Counting

The Centre has run the Crop Residue Management (CRM) scheme since 2018, providing subsidies for machinery and alternative residue-management systems. Between 2018-19 and 2025-26, the Union government released ₹4,266.47 crore to states under the programme — including ₹2,056.50 crore for Punjab, ₹1,171.71 crore for Haryana, ₹868.67 crore for Uttar Pradesh, and ₹59 crore for Madhya Pradesh.

For the current financial year, ₹592.57 crore was earmarked, of which ₹430.87 crore had already been released by mid-October. Slow utilisation of allocated funds, however, remains a persistent concern. More than 3.23 lakh crop-residue management machines and over 41,900 Custom Hiring Centres (CHC) have been established since the scheme's launch. Revised guidelines now allow financial support of up to 65 per cent for projects developing straw supply chains for biomass, biofuel, and pelletisation industries.

Monitoring, Courts, and Political Deadlock

The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) has intensified enforcement, deploying flying squads across Punjab and Haryana during the harvest period, supported by dedicated monitoring cells. Thermal power plants, compressed biogas facilities, and biomass-energy projects are increasingly being positioned as long-term structural solutions that transform agricultural waste into fuel.

The issue, however, remains entangled in state politics. Delhi, governed at various times by parties opposed to those ruling Punjab, Haryana, or the Centre, has repeatedly seen inter-state blame rather than coordinated action. The Supreme Court has intervened on multiple occasions, directing Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and central agencies to act in concert.

A high-level inter-ministerial review meeting was held on Tuesday to oversee crop residue management during the ongoing harvest season, attended by concerned Union and state ministers. This season will test whether the combination of subsidies, alternative technologies, biomass markets, and stricter monitoring can deliver a sustained and measurable reduction in burning.