Rebecca Grynspan, the head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), has extended her lead among Security Council members in the fourth informal straw poll to identify a successor to outgoing Secretary-General António Guterres, according to sources tracking the confidential process. The poll, conducted on Tuesday, 30 September 2026, placed Grynspan ahead of six other candidates, though the five permanent members with veto powers retain the decisive say.

Fourth Poll Results

According to tabulations published by 1 for 8 Billion (1f8B), a group advocating for fair and open UN elections, and Pass Blue, a media outlet covering the United Nations, Grynspan of Costa Rica received ten positive votes, three negative, and two neutral votes from the 15-member Security Council. That represents one additional positive vote compared to the third straw poll held two weeks prior.

France's Permanent Representative Jérôme Bonnafont, serving as the Council president for the month, confirmed the poll had taken place but declined to reveal results under the agreed procedure. The results nonetheless leaked, as has been the pattern in previous rounds.

Where the Remaining Candidates Stand

Former Guyana Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, who had led in an earlier round, held her second-place position with eight positive, six negative, and one neutral vote — unchanged from the third poll. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi of Argentina placed third. He was followed by Olara Otunnu, a former UN under-secretary-general and ex-foreign minister of Uganda. Former Senegal President Macky Sall, who reportedly lacks the backing of his own government, came fifth. María Fernanda Espinosa, a former General Assembly president and Ecuador's former foreign minister, and Ivonne A-Baki, a former Ecuadorian ambassador to the United States and France, finished sixth and seventh respectively.

The Latin America Factor

A powerful regional sentiment is shaping the race. The UN has been led exclusively by men across its 80-year history, and there has been no Latin American in the top post for 35 years — since Javier Pérez de Cuéllar departed in 1991. Delegations from Latin America and the Caribbean have argued it is the region's turn, an argument that benefits both Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett. During the high-level week of the General Assembly last week, sentiment reportedly ran strong for a woman to lead the organisation for the first time.

Russia's Position and the Veto Wildcard

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated at a news conference last week that Moscow did not consider the current field of candidates suitable and suggested others could yet emerge — a signal that could complicate any candidate's path to the required Council consensus. Bonnafont noted that colour-coded ballots, used at a more advanced stage to distinguish permanent members' votes, were not employed in this round, meaning the veto-holders' individual positions remain unknown. In the formal polling mechanism, members mark each candidate as Encourage, Discourage, or No Opinion, corresponding to positive, negative, and neutral.

A Three-Month Deadline

The Security Council has roughly three months to agree on a nominee before the 1 January start date, when Guterres's term expires. Guterres has stated he will not remain in office beyond midnight on 31 December. Under the UN Charter, the Council selects a candidate and forwards the nomination to the General Assembly for approval — a step that has historically been a formality. If the Council remains deadlocked, it will face the unusual challenge of determining who manages the organisation in the interim. With Russia openly signalling dissatisfaction, the informal polls remain as much about diplomatic manoeuvrability as candidate merit.