Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to return to normal within 30 days under a newly signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding, senior US officials said on Monday, 15 June, outlining provisions for toll-free navigation, priority passage for oil and gas tankers, and a US-backed maritime coordination mechanism. The agreement marks a significant step toward restoring one of the world's most critical energy corridors after weeks of blockade-driven disruption.

What the MOU Provides

According to senior officials, the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran provides for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade that had disrupted maritime traffic and unsettled global energy markets. “We’re quite explicit in this MOU. The straits will be open toll-free for 60 days, and we expect that to become part of the final agreement as well,” a senior US official said during a background briefing.

Traffic Already Recovering

Officials said shipping activity had already begun increasing in the immediate aftermath of the agreement. “We’re already seeing a substantial increase in traffic,” one official said, adding that commercial movements were expected to accelerate over the coming days. Vessel traffic, which had fallen sharply during the crisis, is projected to rebound quickly. “We’ve been getting as many as 25 ships through a day. Now that we’re through, I think that’ll probably go to maybe 40 to 50, pretty quickly,” a senior official said. “By Friday, everything will be fully open, I think.”

Energy Cargoes Get Priority

The administration indicated that energy shipments would be among the first to benefit from the reopening. “The prioritization will be on the heavy tankers, you know, the gas, the oil. So, I think that will actually flow very quickly,” the official said. This is significant given that the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world’s traded oil, making any sustained disruption a direct shock to global energy prices.

Bahrain-Based Coordination Mechanism

Officials disclosed that Washington had established a maritime freedom coordination mechanism through Bahrain and US Central Command (CENTCOM) to facilitate the return of commercial traffic. “We have a maritime freedom coordination mechanism that we’ve set up in Bahrain through CENTCOM, and that will help work with all the commercial ships,” a senior official said. Some shipping companies were noted to remain cautious after weeks of conflict, mining threats, and security concerns, though officials expressed confidence that normal conditions would return relatively quickly.

Economic Pressure That Brought Iran to the Table

Senior officials argued that sustained maritime operations had already reduced Iran’s leverage over the strait. “Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve been getting over 7 million barrels a day out of the strait,” one official said, adding that the effort helped convince Tehran that it “did not have control” of the waterway. The blockade, officials said, had exerted significant economic pressure on Iran and contributed directly to the negotiations that produced the MOU. “We’re going to be super aggressive towards getting this open as quickly as possible, because that’s great for the world economy,” a senior official said.

With sectoral shipping caution expected to ease as security guarantees firm up, the coming days will be closely watched by energy markets and global trade observers alike.