Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to roughly two-thirds of its pre-war level, the Trump administration said on 20 July, even as a former NATO supreme allied commander warned that Iran could widen the conflict by directing the Houthis to threaten the Suez Canal. The disclosures came amid fresh US strikes against Iran and the deaths of two American service members in an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan.

What the Energy Secretary Said

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright pushed back against suggestions that traffic through the Strait had effectively halted. He told ABC News' This Week that the seven-day trailing average stood at ‘just under seven million barrels a day’ through the waterway, with a comparable volume moving through bypass pipelines.

“So, we’re at a little under 14 million barrels a day from the Arabian Gulf region,” Wright said. “That’s two-thirds of pre-conflict traffic, dramatically up from where we were back in March.” Wright acknowledged that ship numbers were ‘down more dramatically’, attributing continued supply to the deployment of larger tankers.

US Casualties and Military Response

Two US service members were killed in an Iranian attack on an American base in Jordan, with a third remaining missing as of the report. US forces responded with fresh strikes against Iran. Wright said Washington would continue protecting Hormuz traffic with or without Tehran’s cooperation, adding that President Donald Trump was ‘always looking for the diplomatic off ramp’ but would act unilaterally if necessary.

Political Pushback at Home

Democratic Senator Mark Warner challenged the administration’s optimistic framing. He pointed to fuel prices in Virginia as evidence of real-world impact, noting that petrol had climbed from $2.81 a gallon before the war to around $4, while diesel had reached $5. “I see no path in the short term how the Strait is going to be settled,” Warner said. “This war of choice has been a disaster.”

The Suez Canal Risk

Retired Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander, raised the prospect of a second front on CNN’s State of the Union. He warned that Iran could use the Houthis in the southwest corner of the region to attempt to close the Suez Canal. “Watch the Suez Canal as a way the Iranians could make another move,” Stavridis said. He also suggested that recent attacks in Jordan may be connected to its proximity to the northern end of the Red Sea, pointing to a possible strategic logic behind Iran’s targeting choices.

What to Watch Next

With Hormuz still operating below normal capacity and the Suez Canal now flagged as a potential flashpoint, global shipping and energy markets face compounding uncertainty. Any Houthi escalation in the Red Sea corridor would add pressure to already strained supply chains. Diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran in the coming days will be closely watched by markets and governments alike.